Just wanted to point what may be the worst Vegas line all season.

West Virginia -2 @ South Florida.


You know I love upsets. You know I may've been a bit rough to USF the week after they beat Louisville. But two points!?! You want some almost certain money, there ya go!

Blogpoll Roundtable

SHANE'S RESPONSES:

1

These questions are part of a series of discussions for participants in the Blog Poll, which you can view here. It's just one part of what is an excellent Michigan sports blog. The responses this week are located here.

1. What would it take for you to vote someone other than USC #1 in the poll? If you already are, what would it take for USC to regain the top spot on your ballot?

I don't think there is anything that'll change my mind on this. USC is the best team, bar-none. Look at where their players will be going in the draft, for starters. They've got candidates for almost every award offered. They've got 3 (or 4 or 5) obvious top 5 draft picks (Leinert, Bush, White, Smith, and Jerrett). Their backup quarterback is better than probably 90% of the country's starters.
It isn't just about who they have.
USC's supposed cupcake schedule to start the season has turned into one of the toughest roads in the country, in my mind. The Pac 10 has shown they are for real this season (Arizona State almost beating LSU, Oregon beating Fresno State, and of course USC's play). The Pac 10 has shown they have some depth this year... while the Big 12 has shown they have none. There are 6 quality teams in the Pac 10 (USC, UCLA, Oregon, Oregon State (yes, look at how they've played this season), Cal, and Arizona State) (I want to put in Stanford... but UC-Davis!?!). I think even the bottom teams are on their way up, especially with the coaches they now have (Willingham for the Huskies, Stoops in Arizona... and both played some better teams close). The Big 12 has 3 decent teams this year in my mind, Texas, Texas Tech, and Nebraska. Every other team has been a disappointment. I think Iowa State deserves some thought too... but they have just hit the slums of a tough stretch of games recently. But Texas A&M: huge disappointment. Colorado: overrated. Oklahoma... we shall not even discuss. Missouri: everything was there for them this year... but they haven't played up to it. Kansas State, Kansas, Oklahoma State, and, in my mind, Oklahoma!?!, are the bottom of the barrel. Not much better than Baylor the last few seasons. Speaking of... Baylor... they may be the one shining spot in the conference beyond Texas.
USC's schedule has been the best of the top teams. Notre Dame, Oregon, Arizona State. All on the road! They've still got Cal and UCLA to come, and, lest we forget... Fresno State, another underrated team.
If USC loses, they drop. But if they win, they can't. They almost lost last week, and I think 99% of the country was hoping they would. But they are most explosive, well-rounded, discipled football team in the country! And they showed some serious character coming back the past three weeks against three really good teams on the road (I also think they showed some character in winning the overlookable Arizona game when Arizona seriously came to play). These games showed USC to have flaws, particularly in their secondary, but they are the best team in the country without question.
Texas will end the season with one big victory, on the road at Ohio State. Their team isn't well-rounded enough to beat USC at a neutral field. If I think of a team that has a more complete team, and has played some more difficult games... the most interesting National Championship game I can envision... I see Virginia Tech.
But the Trojans have a quintillion weapons. They win games with heart. They play gutsy and with excitement. They win close games over big teams. And, oh yeah, they haven't lost in 26 or 27 games! No way teams like VTech and Texas, who weren't top contenders last year (they weren't even the best teams in their conferences... despite Tech winning it, they did it as everyone else collapsed, not by being the greatest team) should be above them. I kinda hate USC too. But you have to admit, they are a juggernaut.
I'm an OU fan. But even I felt dirty saying Jason White should get back-to-back Heismans last year. He wasn't that calliber of player. He isn't NFL material. Matt Leinert is. He showed that Saturday with a PERFECTLY placed ball to Jerrett on the first do-or-die play of the game, then followed that up with two gritty plays to end and win the game. Should they have lost Saturday? Yes. They had the game lost if that ball lands in-bounds. But Texas Tech should have lost 2 weeks ago. And Nebraska should have lost to Missouri when they won the championship in 1997. Coulda shoulda. It's about winning when it comes down to it. All you who want a playoff... this is what you believe in. A win is a win is a win. And USC's wins look awesome when you see who they've beaten.

2. Which of the undefeateds is most likely to remain so? Who is least likely?

Based on who's left on the schedule:
Texas
USC
UCLA
Texas Tech
Virginia Tech
Georgia
Alabama

Teams I really believe have the best chance based upon how good they really are and how they match up in the remaining games:
USC
Virginia Tech
Texas
UCLA
Georgia
Alabama
Texas Tech

Texas does have the easiest road left. That's not to say they can't lose. They have to show their defense is up to the task of stopping Texas Tech's prolific passing game... which I don't think is an easy task for any team. Texas A&M has been a real enigma this year as so many people thought they were the team to take the next big step this year... but have really floundered. Should they be back on track by the time the 'Horns come calling, though, it is certainly possible, as they always give Texas fits, and have the offense to play with big teams if they can get going.
And, funny as it sounds, DO NOT OVERLOOK BAYLOR. Don't look now, but this team has played some great football in the last year. The Nebraska loss really has to have hurt their confidence a lot. But it all started a year ago with that win over Texas A&M... and they had them beat again this year. They've become a team that can play to the level of their opponents... I think they have the upper hand on OU this week... and then could beat a deflated Texas Tech team next week before the big one with Texas. Texas might be prone to overlook them, and Baylor has become quite good at defending the home turf in Waco. I'm not saying its a guarantee, but I almost certainly will take Baylor to make a game of it.
The other game that is a challenge is the Big 12 title game. Nebraska (most likely) will be another stumbling block... and will have the chance to pull a 2003 Kansas State.
Checking off the rest of the schedule is not something I'd be doing as a Texas fan.
The Big 12 is the worst its been in modern memory. But that still doesn't hand Texas the title. They keep playing solid football, it's their's. But they've had a tendency to slip up.

USC should win their next three. That leaves three ranked teams for the final three games. I think Cal has shown to be overrated. They lost their experience on offense this year, and the rest of the Pac 10 has evolved lightyears over the past two seasons. I'd be more worried, if I'm USC, about the final two games. If Fresno State were getting them in Fresno, maybe the miracle of all miracles could happen. They are an underrated team ready to make a big upset. But though they have the rest of the season to prepare... they just can't match USC, and USC should walk. That leaves UCLA. Could be their toughest challenge yet (can it get any harder!?!). Home field advantage doesn't mean much, it's a rivalry game, and UCLA has seen quite a few years of being stepped on by big brother.
But I still have to believe USC wins.
Next week will show a lot about USC. How do they come out after four strange games for them. They weren't the invincible team they'd become taken on the mentality of, especially last week. They struggled early against AState and Oregon, but they just willed their way to eventually easy wins. I thought they would come out revived last Saturday... that those two games would be all the "wake up calls" they'd need. But ND played their hearts out... and as I said all year, anything is possible in South Bend... any game played there is mass chaos. It totally came to that. But as I said two weeks ago, they either lose to Arizona State or they don't lose a game. Including in January. USC will win it all.
They struggled to eek out three road wins in the past month. But they were three very good opponents, all three specifically set on beating USC. And they went on the road and won all 3. How many teams can do that!?! Just one in my book.
And now they have three teams... three teams, which, other than maybe UCLA, are not as good as the three they just played. And they get them at home.
Again, they have to play like they want to win.
But after playing with such passion this weekend, and for the past two seasons, I don't see how they don't do it.

Virginia Tech: Tough road ahead still. 5 losable games.
But their defense has been light's out.
At Maryland will be a test this weekend. But then they get their two toughest opponents at home. Two teams which really haven't done anything too special, and have just coasted (Miami and Boston College). At Virginia should be a win, as the previous two weeks have shown us that they aren't very consistant... I think the win over FSU will be what UV lives on the rest of this season as they coast to a mid-level bowl game. North Carolina has played better than expected this season, but Louisville showed how a prepared team handles them. Then of course there's the ACC Title game. No one from the Atlantic has shown themselves to be very spectacular. FSU should be able to get the spot even still... as they beat BC, and have a relatively winnable remaining schedule in conference. With that, they probably come in with renewed miracle hopes at a National title appearance. But they can't beat Virginia Tech. Their offense is just too bad. They shouldn't have beaten Miami (Miami found every possible way to lose that game... even though they themselves aren't that good), and if you've watched closely, they've struggled EVERY WEEK way more than the scores show. They lead The Citadel by only 3 at halftime, trailed BC in the 4th quarter (acceptable), only led Syracuse by 17 at the half because of an uncovered deep pass and a fumble recovery, being otherwise unimpressive, and only led Wake by 3 going to the 4th quarter. Oh, and then there was last week. Their offense has shown little ability to sustain drives... and their defense hasn't played quite up to expectations either. They've struggled with a lot of bad teams... and certainly could still lose the Coastal. VTech could realistically expect to shut them out. All VTech has to do is play smart football.
They've got a scary looking schedule remaining, but each game is winnable, and I think Tech has already shown with their consistant victories over good teams (Georgia Tech, West Viriginia, ... even NC State on the road because NC State had a lot of expectations and felt good about themselves at the time) that they have the ability to win the rest. GTech wasn't even an afterthought and West Virginia was a solid road win against a rival. They should be able to keep that play up, and the week off should only help them reinforce their domination.

Texas Tech: Doubt they'll beat Texas. If they do, they still have Baylor, Texas A&M, and Oklahoma to survive. Could be their year to finally take the next step and show this passing game can compete with the best. They've come so close to beating Texas and even OU in years past... but haven't pulled off the major win yet. Maybe this is the year. I doubt it. And let's not forget the Big 12 title game.

UCLA: Everybody's now saying they should waltz into The Colliseum undefeated. But back up for a second. Oregon State and Arizona State are not to be overlooked. This is the Pac 10. And this year the Pac 10 is playing like the Big 10 or SEC. On any given week, anyone can beat anyone. And every game comes down to the wire. It's been a very exciting season so far. Arizona or Stanford could beat them too, as neither team is just awful. UCLA hasn't shown themselves to be a team is a step above the rest like USC has. They survived Cal and Washington State the past two weeks with immaculate 4th quarters. So I give them a 50% chance at best to make Dec 3 undefeated (and, btw, why in the world do they have a month off before USC!?!).

My most valid statement about Georgia and Alabama was made a few weeks ago, when I took a look back at teams that have escaped the SEC undefeated. Each season was a serious down year for the other teams in the conference. This year isn't that. There's too many good teams, and it's much like the Big 10. No one can escape. I'm not sure USC could even escape the Big 10 or SEC.

Georgia: This just in: Georgia hasn't shown anything yet. They haven't had a real game to date. They beat Tennessee two weeks ago... but UT has looked ugly most of this season. Let's not forget they eeked out a home victory over South Carolina. How does that look now!?!?! Not very good. USC#2 may've been feeling a lot better about themselves back then... but that's a game you've got to put away. Alabama did it. Why couldn't Georgia. Admittedly there are only 3 real tests on slate for the Dawgs. But they are big tests. Florida, Auburn, and Georgia Tech. Florida has a great team I think people are starting to write off too early. It's obvious to me that Chris Leak is not a road quarterback. Good thing he doesn't have to be one in Jacksonville. Georgia really hasn't shown the enthusiasm and passion the other undefeateds have this year. And I think Florida will come in with a big itch to scratch and beat Georgia. If not there, Auburn is a good place to look for a loss. I'm not very convinced in Auburn... and a home game bodes well for Georgia... but it's the SEC... so you just can't be certain of any team winning consistantly... and Auburn has shown they are a decent team at the least.
Atlanta may be their biggest challenge of all. Georgia Tech has kind of gone behind the radar screen since VTech slaughtered them. The road doesn't get any easier for them, as they could conceivably lose 4 of their last 5. But I could also see them getting on a roll at home, beating Clemson and Wake (teams they should beat), then handling Virginia, and coming in with big passion to spoil their neighbor's run.
Oh yeah, did I forget... SEC title game anyone!?!

Alabama: Last and maybe least. Alabama is a good team. Their win over Florida was convincing that they have reached the next level. But their three remaining tough games are even a scarier bunch, Tennessee, LSU, and Auburn (who have a combined 4 losses). They lost Crothro, and their offense didn't look so good last week. That's the obvious. But I think their schedule is just as big a concern no matter who they have playing. I think Tennessee comes in with a chip on their shoulder after a poor start this week and tries to take it off on Bama (see Wolverines, Michigan). LSU has shown their ability to win on the road (Arizona State) and is one bad mistake of a 4th quarter from being undefeated still. They, in my mind, are the frontrunners for the SEC title. And then there's that whole Iron Bowl thing. Another one of those games where both teams come in with so much emotion. Auburn won't get there without losing again (in my mind), but they'll be all that much more passionate should Bama come in undefeated.
Did I mention there's an SEC title game? Who wants to play Florida again!?! Or Georgia!?!

Georgia and Bama still have huge rivalry games, three opponents near the Top 25, and the conference title game... and they play in the wacky SEC.
USC has three ranked oppoenents left, none really as good as the ones they've played, they've already weathered an awesome storm... and they're all home games.
Texas just has to play up to their ability, and they should win out if they do that. That's a big if with Texas.
Texas Tech wants to show they've reached the next level. Sorry, but I don't think they can, even if they beat Texas. No D.
UCLA has won some thrillers, but they haven't played strongly enough that they can survive the rest of the Pac 10 schedule... and even if they do... it'll be a mountain to climb to beat USC.

USC and VTech have done the most so far, with a good collection of victories. Texas and Alabama each have one big one. UCLA has shown some heart in surviving. Texas Tech has played Noone A&M.

If USC and VTech win out, it's gotta be them in Pasadena. No matter what happens. I have Texas #2 now because, so far they've played the better teams overall. And winning next week will help keep them there for a while. But VTech has a much tougher road left and looks like the better team when the race ends. And Texas can't cheat their way into the Rose Bowl this year.

3. If you were running the BCS system, would you let the computer rankings factor in margin of victory? Why or why not?

Not a chance.

College football is about whether you win or lose.

All you people who want a playoff (I am vehemently opposed to one)... you are telling me that winning a game, no matter how, is what makes you the better team. Chad argued last week in our poll-making that a heads up victory makes a team the better team no matter how the rest of their season has looked (though I won that battle this week with BC-FSU).

The margin of victory is largely forgotten in the long run. (See Jason's OSU poll for more great thoughts on this and other solid logic)

Margin of victory inclusion excites all kinds of ugly things against the spirit of the game. Do you remember in the NFL a few seasons ago when a team needed to win by like 54 (I believe it was Green Bay) and have help to make the playoffs in the final week. They came out in the 2 minute drill. I believe they also lost. But enough people got on Oklahoma for apparently running up the score vs Texas A&M a couple years back (note: they did NOT). An invitation to actually do so is the last thing we need.

Margin of victory IS a part of the BCS. Human pollsters can take whatever information they want into account when moving teams around. USC lost a few points in every poll this week. Over the course of the season, the team playing less spectacularly will pay with the human polls. It isn't a huge amount. But it's the right amount.

Why do we have the BCS?

Most people would probably just turn around with a higher pitched response... "WHY DO WE HAVE THE BCS". No one likes it any more. Why?

It was designed as a system to combine the biased but more dynamic human aspect of voting with the unbiased but strict rules of computers and other constants. It was to make a National Title Game that was the two best games. I could start going on about how the winners of the World Series, Super Bowl, and NCAA Tournament each year aren't
the best team in the nation, just the one that won the right set of games... but that'll inspire an overwhelming outcry, I know. Soon I will come up with a more formulated and logical response, including a lot of evidence, as to why I like the BCS.

But, putting the playoff argument aside, the BCS does what it was supposed to. Or it did. Until we went back to a system more based on point differential!

The BCS got broken in 2003. When we decided that, because Oklahoma didn't deserve to play in the title game over USC, we had to take away most of the computer's power because it didn't know what it was doing.
Our opinions may've been the correct one that year.
But we decided we'd make the system designed to fairly (with less bias than any committee or poll would have) choose the title game more influencable by us.

I think that was a bad choice, removing the loss, strength of schedule, and quality win categories... the three fairest parts of the system.

All the BCS is now is a glorified human poll. 67% is human voters. That means the people have the much more than majority rule over it. If a politcal party is 67% Democrat/Republican, they will get their way mainly. A politician can't lose Texas, New York, Florida, and California and still expect to win the presidential race. Even though the computers favored Texas in 2004, the reason Cal actually got jipped from a Rose Bowl berth came down to margin of victory that final week over Southern Miss. If margin entered the computers, it would've just been worse.

If we believe the voters and our opinions are already right, just remove the computers entirely. If we believe there are times when, in hindsight, our beliefs were wrong, keep the computers. I think instead of significantly altering the BCS each year because it hasn't reached our expected conclusion... perhaps we instead take a look at the 8 mighty computer polls behind it. Some are pretty rediculous! Georgia is #1 and Penn State #5 still in the Colley poll!?! What kind of messed up poll is that!?!

I'm a meteorologist. We have computer models too. When the forecast is very wrong, we don't look for a totally new way of representing the atmosphere, we look at what mistakes were made. We don't try to throw out our atmosperic data and equations and start from scratch. When they don't work very good, we try to advance the science working in the models. Tinker with stuff, find more perfect representation schemes. Perhaps not enough has been for this BCS land.

But to say margin of victory should be added seems ludicrous. It's already in the human polls. And it doesn't mean much. FSU looked ugly again a lot of teams this year, but ended up winning by a lot. Texas Tech's victories don't look that stellar. Does Bama beating South Carolina by more than Georgia make them the better team? But how do you deal with that? Is a 3 point win by FSU over Miami better than 3 50+ point wins by Texas Tech over bad schools? Say what you will, but it's comparing apples and oranges.

So maybe I'm saying you remove the computer polls before you stoop to adding margin of victory to the computers.

Maybe a BCS with human polls, a revised quality win component (counting wins over top 25 teams), strength of schedule, and losses is best.

From a person who doesn't want a playoff, though, I believe margin of victory only hurts things. And then my frustration over the additon of replay to college football will be replaced quickly with a new worst enemy (besides the looming playoff).

If you believe in a playoff, you believe it's about winning and losing, not the amount. Tennessee beat LSU. LSU was the better team. LSU was punished pretty hard for it. USC beat Notre Dame. Notre Dame was arguably the better team. Notre Dame wasn't punished nearly so bad. LSU only has 120 points on ND... even though Notre Dame has another loss to go with their's this weekend.

We need some consistancy.

But if you want a playoff, you can't call for margin of victory to be added. It's already in the human polls. And trying to make it count for so much more is doing exactly what you're against... basing things on something other than wins and lossees.

Let's get some consistancy!

It's said a lot by me, Chad, and a lot of people making the BlogPoll each week. So-and-so has a better body of work.

It's not about any one game totally. We accept that teams can have a really bad game here or there. Miami had a horrible one to start the season. LSU had a bad quarter a few weeks back.
We're always trying to be fair. I don't rate victories over the same team with the same weight... even if by the same score. How did the winning team look? Did the opponent come to play that game? Were there a lot of lucky bounces involved? How did the team then respond?
Margin of victory doesn't enter my own mind's poll. If margin of victory means so much, does that Florida, who beat UT by 9, is lightyears better than LSU, who threw it away late? Preposterous! Records mean more. And how teams play matter too. There are some sub-500 teams that I consider better than some 500 teams. Not just based on who they've played, but how they've played. Clemson is better than a lot of above 500 teams. Yet they lost bad to Wake.

What I'm getting at is that no single rule goes into my mind to rate teams. Not margin of victory, not ability or potential, not opponents played... not even number of victories. So maybe I've just realized I'm not a big fan of computer polls at all (though I still believe we need a system to apply some criteria to our beliefs to weight what can be some sharp biases). But I'm also saying that margin of victory just isn't near the top of anyone's list of comparison tools. Vanderbilt's 4 point win over Wake Forest means as much in my mind as Florida State's 17 pointer. Because of how the teams looked and the games they plaed. Nebraska's 7 point victory over Iowa State means way more than Baylor 10 point win the next week. Because teams aren't static entities. If you believe in momentum and iinspiration, how can you insist that a point differential means so much?

Our first poll of the year is out (we just take a week longer than the Harris people (we also don't vote for Idaho!!!)). The full poll with comments and combined point total from me and Chad is available at http://mesolab.meas.ncsu.edu/~cringley/blog/cstop25blog.html

You can also compare our poll results to others in the BlogPoll world at http://mgoboard.com/blogpoll/voter-grid.php?css_url=http://mgoboard.com/blogpoll/CSS/mgoblog.css. I think so far the polls entered are all nuts. What's with the lack of respect for Nebraska? I know they aren't a National Champ contender, but they haven't lost a game and took care of things this week. UCLA has struggled more and Texas Tech has played weaker opponents. Yet many aren't even ranking them. And there's no way you can rank Minnesota that low, when they have a Heisman candidate running back (I still believe he's right up there... especially if they can win out), and had to travel on the road to play Penn State. They beat Purdue last week. Louisville has played no one and has lost a game.

And it's amazing to see the bias people can allow into their polls for their most/least favorite teams. Ours is from 100% pure observation.

Two notes: I considered putting VT above Texas. This week will be big for UT to prove something. They have to win decisively to end the curse. Second, we argued for greaterthan-equalto 28 months over Tennessee versus LSU position. The reasons go back to our core beliefs about college football. Chad believes head-to-head matchups should be the deciding tie-breaker, and I still believe other stuff can be more important. You'll probably see more about this in the upcoming weeks!

1	Southern Cal	25
2	Texas	24
3	Virginia Tech	23
4	Florida State	22
5	Georgia	21
6	Alabama	20
7	Ohio State	19
8	Wisconsin	18
9	Cal	17
10	Notre Dame	16
11	Miami (Florida)	15
12	Penn State	14
13	Tennessee	13
14	Louisiana State	12
15	Arizona State	11
16	UCLA	10
17	Florida	9
18	Texas Tech	8
19	Michigan State	7
20	Nebraska	6
21	Boston College	5
22	Michigan	4
23	Oregon	3
24	Minnesota	2
25	Auburn	1

Final consensus poll comes out Wednesday at http://mgoblog.blogspot.com/.

The shootout in the desert baby! Matt Leinart and SC go to Tempe to take on Derek Hagan and the red-hot Sun Devils of Arizona State.

COLLEGE FOOTBALL: WEEK 5 PREDICTIONS

#2 Texas @ Missouri

Saturday, 10/1/05, Noon ABC Regional
Line: Texas -14.5

Chad's Prediction: Texas 38, Missouri 21

Shane's Prediction: Texas 32, Missouri 14
Chad - Anyone who says the Longhorns are looking past Mizzou to the Red River Shootout doesn't have have their head screwed on straight. Brad Smith is a much less dangerous version of Vince Young, that the Texas defense sees in all it's glory everyday in practice. The Texas running game will be too much for Mizzou to contain, and the Longhorns will cruise in Tiger land.

Shane - First of all... it's October already!?! Man I hate winter. Well, if it weren't for college sports season. And Christmas. But come January and February, the world is just too cold. I've been back and forth on this one forever in my mind. Not over who would win. But how close it would be. It could be a surprise close one. But I don't believe Texas will face that until later this season. Especially after offensive struggles last game... they should be a chuggin' train this week. And the D steps up a bit.


#3 Virginia Tech @ West Virginia
Saturday, 10/1/05, Noon ESPN
Line: VA Tech -10.0
Chad's Prediction: VA Tech 24, WVU 3

Shane's Prediction: VA Tech 42 , WVU 27
Chad: Stat of the week: VA Tech has allowed a grand total of 2 offensive touchdowns this year: 1 on the opening drive to NC State, and one to Reggie Ball and GT in the 51-7 route. So...do you have faith in the WV offense in scoring against THIS defense? I didn't think so. No doubt Morgantown is a tough enviorment, and it's a rivarly game...but you got to recognize..it takes something special to score on the Hokies.
Shane: Another game I've had on my mind for a while as to how it would go. But recently I've seen too many people hyping West Virginia to win this one, and I'm less and less confident by the day that it could happen. It is in WV. But their season so far shows them to be a middle-of-the-pack team with close wins over Syracuse and Maryland. Everyone... and I mean everyone... is thinking WV this weekend. Heck, Yahoo's front story is about it. Not the big matchup of the week like it usually is... but WV-VT. VTech is starting, in my mind, to look like the team to win it all. I'm not saying they are. But their D is stout, and their O still is improving too. We'll see... there's some tough games still to come. But things don't often repeat themselves, and this upset will not.

Michigan @ #11 Michigan State

Saturday, 10/1/05, Noon ABC Regional

Line: MSU -4.0

Chad's Prediction: MSU 31, UM 24

Shane's Prediction: UM 35, MSU 28
Chad: Drew Stanton, Javon Ringer, and the MSU offense have proved their worth in 2005. The difference between the Spartans and the Wolverines? Leadership under center. Stanton is a terrific QB and is right now the hottest QB in the Big 10. Speaking of, what happened to the Chad Henne of 2004? With Hart banged up and Henne's shaky play, Michigan is on a deep downward spiral. The rivarly aspect of this game keeps it close, but expect MSU to keep rolling.

Shane: Is it just me, or has everybody and their brother decided to jump on the Michigan State bandwagon all of the sudden!?! Let's think back to preseason. What were the teams we were thinking were primed for the Big 10 race? Well not much has changed in a few weeks. They're all basically the same teams we considered preseason. We were talking about Ohio State, Michigan, and Iowa (well, they kinda fell off, but still). Then the second group? Purdue, Minnesota, Wisconsin... and maybe Penn State. Nowhere did we talk about the Spartans. Our mistake? NO! Michigan State hasn't done much of anything this season. They beat Notre Dame in South Bend. I think I've talked before about how anything at all is possible in that historic callamity zone. Was Boston College the better team in the 90's (or 3 years ago)? Was Notre Dame better last year when they played Michigan last year? Michigan State beat three other semi-patzies (Kent State, Hawaii, Illinois). But this team is a team that's got some talent on all sides of the ball... but doesn't have the consistancy in any part of it's game. Passing? Stanton has been explosive against the lesser teams. But his percentage was down in South Bend. And you can fault the coaching if you like... but they decided they couldn't rely on them to lead in the 4th quarter. After State went up 21 in the 3rd quarter... Stanton's remaining #s... 2 out of 5 for 28 yards... 1 of which was fumbled after being thrown in a touch spot... and a sack. He ran the ball well, but can he throw when called upon? Maybe. Slightly bigger question comes in the running game. The forgotten is that they only ran for 161 yards vs Notre Dame, 48 of which were Stanton. Those are passable numbers I guess... but the reality is they couldn't run out the clock in the 4th quarter. And that brings us to the defense, which gave up that 21 point lead. I know I sound like I'm focusing on that quarter a little too much, but the reality is it showed us something. MSU isn't that special. MSU's secondary can be exploited, and I believe their offense can be shut down when they play a decent defense. Michigan has only given up 269 yards per game so far this season, even while playing 2 ranked teams (ND and Wisconsin) AND a decent Northern Illinois team. And Chad Henne is ready to break out this game. This is almost the same team we saw play in the Rose Bowl last year. They need to get Michael Hart back. And they don't have Braylon Edwards, agreed. But come on, it wasn't all Edwards last year. Henne was a leader. And he can be one again. They are going to get a peptalk telling them they aren't out of the Big 10 race at all (it all still likely comes down to the annual UM-OSU game in reality), and they are going to come out and play some passionate ball. I'd make this my lock of the week if my disdain for MSU didn't effect me so much (stupid Mateen Cleaves).


#18 Minnesota @ Penn State
Saturday, 10/1/05, 3:30pm ABC Regional
Line: Minnesota -3.0
Chad's Prediction: Minnesota 24, Penn State 20

Shane's Prediction: Penn State 30, Minnesota 25
Chad: Have you seen Lawerence Maroney? Does he garner your Heisman vote? He should. The Golden Gophers are red hot and Penn State has been shaky at times this year...while Minnesota has played solid throughout. Expect alot of Maroney...too much for the Nittany Lion's defense...especially late in the 4th quarter.

Shane: This just in, Lawerence Maroney might just be human. Penn State has showed me some serious mettle so for this season. They beat South Florida quite easily (that looks better now, doesn't it)... and won their next two. Last week they needed a last minute td to escape Evanston. But what I get from that game is that they have that grit to win tough games. And in the Big 10, that's everything. Just a word of note, Northwestern is 2-2 after beating two decent MAC teams in Ohio and Northern Illinois... and they played 3 good quarters (whooops, probably should play the 2nd too) versus Arizona State on the road. Penn State can slow Maroney down just enough to stay slightly in front... and wins with the support of the home crowd. I can't guarantee this one... but this is Joe Pa's chance... and I really believe in the guy. Oh yeah, plus they got some big talent (Derrick Williams is da bomb people!). It's make or break time in State College!

#23 Iowa State @ Nebraska
Saturday, 10/1/05, 3:30pm ABC Regional
Line: NU -4.0
Chad's Prediction: Iowa State 17, NU 14

Shane's Prediction: Nebraska 24, ISU 23

Shane: This one almost slipped by our radar screen... but I think it's for the Big 12 North. These teams are way better than Colorado, Kansas, and Kansas State... and Missouri may be demoralized if they lose this week having already lost to a very excellent New Mexico team a few weeks back. People just really don't want to pick the Cyclones it seems... but they are good. The one problem? They are going to Lincoln. And don't look now, but I think the droning buzz is really starting ratchet up from fans with rising expectations in the state of corn. Don't look now, but Bret Meyer is 62 of 91 for 626 yards and 4 td. 4 picks as well, but still... If Iowa State can win this game, maybe, just maybe, we should slip his name into the Heisman watch envelope quietly. I mean, seriously, a sophomore led them to a big victory over highly touted Iowa... and last week led them through a tough game to pull out a victory. Iowa State isn't that special. I'm not all that impressed by their receivers. But if the Cyclones win this game... WATCH OUT. They'd have the best team in the north out of the way... and, oh, look, they play bulldogs Baylor and Oklahoma State from the south. They get Colorado at home. That would leave games at Missouri and at Texas A&M as their only real worries. Will they win them both? Eh, we'll see. But they definitely have the back road to an undefeated regular season. And wouldn't that be something. That said, I think Nebraska nips them in what could be... THE BEST BIG 12 GAME OF THE YEAR! There you go, I said it! :-)

#5 Florida @ #15 Alabama
Saturday, 10/1/05, 3:30pm CBS
Line: UF -4.0
Chad's Prediction: Florida 24, Alabama 21

Shane's Prediction: Florida 28, Alabama 23

Shane: I'm not all that hyped about this one yet. Yet. This weekend, I bet I'll be bouncing off the walls. I think people are starting to overhype the Bama. Why? Can I remind people they've only won by a combined 62 points (ie 15.5 ppg)... versus South Carolina, Arkansas, Southern Miss, and Middle Tennessee!?! That said, I've been on the Brodie bandwagon since way back when. With a big win, he definitely starts to hit the Heisman buzz. But I'm slowly becoming pumped about Florida. There's something I wanted to point out about conferences with consistantly huge depth and gobs of very heated rivalries. The conferences are the Big 10 and SEC. The problem? Playing a top college football program is like playing Russian Roulette. The more you play, the more likely you are to lose. Each time it's like escaping death, too. 7, 8, 9, even 10 teams in the Big 10 and SEC are good, basically every year. And the reality is that no team, no matter how good generally can escape these conferences to play for the national title. The Big 10 is already in tatters... and I guarantee no one will escape it without a loss at some point (Ohio State, you may've really done yourself in a few weeks ago). The SEC has already seen two (three if you count Auburn) of its top teams go down. And there are just so many teams lying in wait for the others. But these two teams are the best hopes of escaping. I'm specifically highlighting Florida because they really are starting to show me they have evolved to that next level. The win over Tennessee was not the prettiest, but it was sound. Now they have Bama, then LSU two weeks down the road, both on the road. Oh yeah... Georgia. Whoops... forgot Florida State... oh yeah, Vandy and SteveSpurriertown will want wins too. But Florida really gives that feeling that they've stepped to an elite class. Bama, on the other hand, gets their three toughest remaining opponents at home (UF, UT, LSU). So though they aren't Florida, they have a slightly better road. The truth is, though, that teams rarely come out of these conferences alive no matter how good they are. Look back at the recent survivors... LSU in 2003, OSU in 2002, UT in 97/98, UF in 96... and almost without fail, that conference's other best teams were on a down year. So, can UF survive the season? I'd like to say yes, but the reality is all signs point to know.

Kansas State @ Oklahoma

Saturday, 10/1/05, 7:00pm FSN Central

Line: OU -6.5

Chad's Prediction: Oklahoma 28, K-State 17, LPL

Shane's Prediction: Oklahoma 42, Kansas State 27

Shane: Yay, Oklahoma is favored to win a game again! It's started to feel lonely being a Sooner fan once more. And the scarier thought... could this be the last time this season the Sooners are favorites!?! Baylor be darned... if this team doesn't improve... it could get ugly. So the question comes to: have they improved? They definitely showed signs of life versus UCLA. Rhett Bomar emerged as a starting quarterback, for starters. For biggers, they at least showed that they can stick close to a pretty good team on the road. But they need to show they are for real this week back at home, where, after a week off, perhaps the unbeatable mentality can reemerge and the Sooners can get back on track. But, we're going to need to some significant steps forward. Options for this improvement include quarterback, wide receiver, blocking, secondary, play calling, and attitude. I may've said it two weeks ago, but this game is now the biggest game for OU this season. Bigger than the last couple season's National Championship games! They need this one bad... to show that they are back on track to some degree. If they win handily, perhaps we start talking about a team that CAN win 6 games and get to a bowl... and can maybe upset the Texas 3 (UT, TAMU, TTU). Weirdest thing, though, is seeing no numbers next to these two teams when they are playing. (First since Halloween 1991, from what I found on soonerstats.com).

#13 Notre Dame @ #22 Purdue

Saturday, 10/1/05, 7:45pm ESPN
Line: Purdue -3.0
Chad's Prediction: Notre Dame 38, Purdue 24

Shane's Prediction: Notre Dame 31, Purdue 28

Shane: This one is a coin toss that I have no clue on. Both teams are coming off losses and tough to predict anyways. I'm going to side with ND because they've consistantly looked a little more consistant than years past... but they looked good in 02 as well (wow, 2 mentions of 2002 Notre Dame in one week). Neither team should be overlooked at any point this season. I have to say, I feel the least confident in this one of any pick THIS SEASON. Should be another good one!

South Florida @ #9 Miami
Saturday, 10/1/05, 8:00pm ESPNU
Line: The U -21.0
Chad's Prediction: Miami 34, USF 10

Shane's Prediction: Miami 72, South Florida 7 LPL

Shane: I'm surprised that this one isn't closer spreadwise. But I will not let that stop me from picking this one as my lock of the week. Miami got their heart ripped out by some heartbreaking special teams..... and really hasn't had the chance to take out their aggression since playing two good teams in Clemson and Colorado. Now, it's payback time. Our contestant hails from the mighty land of Tampa Bay! They have 43250 students and specialize in medical research and water treatment. Let's meet, the University of South Florida. *Game Show entrance music plays*. Now that I have that out of my way... let's remember the fact that they played at home and a Louisville team that I think all-in-all may prove to be slightly less stellar than we thought. They also had the element of surprise and something big to prove. This week, they travel on the road to a historic college football school with a lot of pride and passion. Miami takes out their frustrations. Big. Real big.

GAME OF THE WEEK
@

#1 USC @ #14 Arizona State

3:30pm ABC Regional

Line: SC -17.0

Chad's Prediction: USC 41, Arizona State 21
Shane's Prediction: Arizona State 42, USC 35

Shane: This is it! I really have come to believe that Arizona State is going to win this one and strike a blow for the world of college football alike. The reality is, if Arizona State doesn't win this week, no one beats USC the rest of this season. Cal is overrated and doesn't have a chance in Duke of beating them. I want to pick Notre Dame... and anything can happen in South Bend (see Michigan-Michigan State game for more on this), but I don't know if they can pull it off when so overmatched. Arizona and Fresno State I'd love to see pull the upset... but face it, that isn't likely. That leaves UCLA as the only other good shot. And the game is on the east side of town. And I don't believe anyone will beat them in January either. This is it. And Arizona State has the team and the cards falling into place to win it. The Sun Devils played a great game against LSU and came up just short. They've beaten up their other three opponents. Sam Keller and Derek Hagan are rocking. And they have the matchup I think to do it. They can stick with USC. This game is going to be a slugfest. The over/under is a whopping 72 points (versus 37.5 for Nebraska-Iowa State)... and I bet the over is the correct choice! But USC won't be able to run them out of the building. And the State defense is excellent at putting pressure on the quarterback. The reality is USC may be slightly better. But Arizona State will keep it close. Then they'll get the big play/defensive stand in the 4th quarter or overtime with the help of the home crowd. This game will be everything the LSU game should've been. And USC and the quarterback who thought being down 21-0 to Oregon was "fun" will face a dark day when they realize all they worked for is over before they know it. This one will be remembered just like the Cal game in '03. Mark my words (considered making it my lock of the week if not for the South Florida shellacking on the slate). USC loses. And the peasants rejoice!

Fans from the state of Florida rejoice!
Top: Amarri Jackson breaks one leading South Florida to a decisive victory over #9 Louisville
Bottom: University of Central Florida fans tear down the goal post after winning their first game since the 2003 season

WEEK 4 RESULTS

Ohio State 31, Iowa 6
Straight-up: Win for Chad, Loss for Shane
Spread: Win for Chad, Loss for Shane
Shane: Wow, I didn't think Iowa was this bad. It wasn't even close.

Minnesota 42, Purdue 35 2 OT
Straight-up: Win for both
Spread: Win for both
Shane: The Big 10 is awesome. No other conference has this many nailbiters year-in, year-out. The SEC is close. The Pac 10 might if it weren't for USC. Big 12, nope. And we won't even discuss the ACC/Big Least.

North Carolina 31, North Carolina State 24
Straight-up: Loss for both
Spread: Loss for both
Shane: That one really hurts. Definitely my worst pick of the week. Probably of the season thus far. I was certain on this one.

Boston College 16, Clemson 13 OT
Straight-up: Loss for both
Spread: Loss for both
Shane: Will someone please give these teams respect? Boston College played very valiantly to come out with a victory. Clemson's play calling may have been a bit suspect... they always seem to be conservative in overtime... and overtime is the worst time to be so... you have to strike fast and furious as the style of play dictates. Can't fault Charlie Whitehurst for trying so hard, though. And let's not forget they were one wide open pass from winning in regulation versus Miami. They should STILL be ranked in my mind. Both teams should. Neither team has a bad loss. Both teams look like cream of the ACC crop... right behind VTech, FSU, and Miami (yes, they should be above GTech... we'll let you know on Virginia when they play someone).

Virginia Tech 51, Georgia Tech 7
Straight-up: Win for both
Spread: Win for both
Shane: Was ANYONE suprised by this? Not the two of us, as we both had VTech covering handily. In Blacksburg, Virginia Tech is going to be tough to beat... as most defensively-oriented teams are.

Notre Dame 36, Washington 17
Straight-up: Win for both
Spread: Win for Chad, loss for Shane
Shane: Ok, ok, I won't pick Arizona or Washington one more time this season (though... Cal and UCLA... OK! Don't worry, Ty, you'll always be a winner in my books! ;-)

Wisconsin 23, Michigan 20
Straight-up: Win for both
Spread: Win for both
Shane: Yay! I picked the Badgers correctly for the first time since ... who knows! Shows once more if all else fails, pick the home team!

South Florida ALOT, Louisville Not Nearly So Much (45-14)
Straight-up: Loss for both
Spread: Win for Shane, loss for Chad
LPL: Win for Shane, loss for Chad
Shane: "I have gotta say, this could be the biggest chance Louisville has to lose all season." I talked endlessly about this one to Chad all week. I really had the feeling about this one, and, WHAMMO! USF was just ready to play. You could see this one coming from a mile away if you look at the instability of Louisville (almost losing to UK) and the underappreciated ability of Louisville (three good games). Miami this week? Nah, sorry, USF, time to go back to being the stepped upon!

USC 45, Oregon 13
Straight-up: Win for both
Spread: Win for Shane, loss for Chad
Shane: How in the world did USC cover!?! I bowl on Saturday nights quite often back at home in Orlando. Chad calls me with updates. I was in the middle of a great evening when Chad calls to tell me USF and Oregon are up! WOOHOO! I picked USC to cover... but boy would it have been nice to see Oregon win. USC showed something here. Still, I'm undecided about how to pick this week's ASU game.

Tennessee 30, LSU 27 OT
Straight-up: Win for Shane, loss for Chad
Spread: Win for Shane, loss for Chad
Shane: What a fun weekend this weekend was! Not only did 3 of our 10 games go to OT (2 more decided by 7 or less)... but NFL had a plethora of close ones (only one team led by more than 7 (Cincy) in the early games at one point (about 3:15)). It was sad to see LSU lose with so much to play for... but you can't expect Tennessee to lose two in a row. Perhaps LSU celebrated too early. You can't count out a team that can become so productive. And for once the qb swapping brought the best qb into the game just in time! The SEC will be a battle again this year.

All in all

Chad
Week 3: 5-5 vs. Spread ... 6-4 Outright ...

LPL - You didn't pick a Florida team... I'M SORRY! ERRR!

OVERALL: 19-21 vs. Spread ... 30-10 Outright ... 1-3 LPLs

Shane
Week 2: 6-4 vs. Spread ... 6-4 Outright ...

LPL - Fight, Fight for Old ... South Florida?!? Yippiddy-do-dah!

OVERALL: 18-22 vs. Spread ... 26-14 Outright ... 2-2 LPLs

It's nail-biting time folks. Chad's lead evaporated to one on the spread. Still, both of us need to pick it up, as we have to be above .500 by the time its all said and done! We both took straight-up hits this week with the unforecasted losses by NCSU, Clemson, and Louisville. But I'm .500 again in the locks... and that's where the serious prognosticating comes into play, I believe!

Here's what we'll be talking about in Week 5:

October 1st Games:

#2 Texas @ Missouri, Noon ABC Regional
#3 Virginia Tech @ West Virginia, Noon ABC Regional
Michigan @ #11 Michigan State, Noon ABC Regional
Indiana @ #17 Wisconsin, Noon ESPN2
#19 Virginia @ Maryland, Noon ESPN Gameplan/JP Sports
#1 USC @ #14 Arizona State, 3:30pm ABC Regional
#5 Florida @ #15 Alabama, 3:30pm CBS
Kansas State @ Oklahoma, 7:00pm FSN Central
#13 Notre Dame @ #22 Purdue, 7:45pm ESPN
South Florida @ #9 Miami, 8:00pm ESPNU

Just wanted to let everybody know about a site where top college football blogging minds come together to create a Top-25 poll each week. The website is at http://mgoblog.blogspot.com/2005/05/blogpoll-central.html.

(Note that I'm looking at the Week 4 poll... which doesn't take into account this weekend's games). My thoughts: VT should be above UF. They have shown they can beat tough teams on the road (NCSU). UCLA and Texas Tech deserve more props. Both have exciting football teams that I think can win games. I know the site owner doesn't want schedule to play a part in the poll... but Texas Tech should be rolling hardcore by the time OU, Texas, and A&M come a knockin'. Alabama deserves more props... even if they did struggle with Arkansas. Michigan State and Cal are overrated. Iowa State underrated (though the test comes this week. If they beat Nebraska, then people will start paying attention!). New Mexico deserved more attention... until they lost this week. They beat a good Missouri team and were generally a competitive team. Clemson should have been higher rated. Even if they did lose again. They find a way to play OT, they're 4-0. If we go back to ties (we should!) they are undefeated. And no, Vanderbilt shouldn't be considered to be ranked. They haven't played anyone yet. Penn State on the other hand.......


Chad, perhaps you want to take a look and tell me your thoughts. Also, you can sign up for the quite infrequent emails (from what they say) athttp://lists.mgoboard.com/listinfo.cgi/blogpoll-mgoboard.com.

Take care all,
Shane

It's all about the quarterbacks this week, as Tennessee's QB tandem of Erik Ainge (10) and Rick Clausen (16) travel to Baton Rouge to face JaMarcus Russell and the Tigers of LSU.

COLLEGE FOOTBALL: WEEK 4 PREDICTIONS

#21 Iowa @ #8 Ohio State

Saturday, 9/24/05, Noon ABC Regional
Line: OSU -7.0

Shane's Prediction: Iowa 31, Ohio State 28
Chad's Prediction: Ohio State 17, Iowa 10

Bet: Shane - Shocker to start the week off. I don't think OSU responded very good to their loss to Texas last week against San Diego State. I'm not sure Iowa wins this one... but I think people are writing off Iowa because people kind of forgot they expected Iowa State to be good this year... and are punishing Iowa for it. Iowa's still a good football team... and I think OSU stumbles once again. Maybe if the offense can make the leap and trust Matt Zwick or Troy Smith with the job 100% of the time (qb tandems suck, period... look at the teams losing this year (Tennessee, Ohio State, Oklahoma?). And how many times have you seen teams win the national title with split qbs... if Georgia had given David Greene the job outright in 2003... I think they might have won either the 03 or 04 National Title... and Shockley would've still been good!). I am not on the Iowa bandwagon that drove me nuts last year (and when they beat UF a few years back)... but you gotta give em some 'spect!
Chad -

#11 Purdue @ Minnesota
Saturday, 9/24/05, Noon ESPN

Line: Minnesota -3.5
Shane's Prediction: Minnesota 28, Purdue 21
Chad's Prediction: Minnesota 31, Purdue 24

Bet: Shane - I'm all about Purude. I just kept trying to pick them to win this game, though, and couldn't. Minnesota is off to a solid start, and there's nothing momentum-wise holding them back (though I believe they'll end up with 3 or 4 losses as this team strikes me as a team that slumps once it loses a game). Games like these, though, just bring back memories of Drew Brees' great time at Purdue... where every week was a battle (Brandon Kirsch, you listening? ... Hmm, apparently not... A - I don't think he reads this! B - He had a horrible game last week against Arizona!).
Chad -

North Carolina @ North Carolina State

Saturday, 9/24/05, Noon ESPN Gameplan
Line: NCState -10.0
Shane's Prediction: North Carolina State 47, North Carolina 17
Chad's Prediction: NC State 24, UNC 10

Bet: Shane - Yeah, ummmmm... this is going to be a good old fashioned barn raising. And UNC is the barn. And raising means systematic annihilation. I've been waiting for a while for NCSU to get someone to play to get some retribution for a game they well shoulda won versus VTech... and I think this is at. At home... responding to a tough loss to a top team... retribution for last year's game... yeah, this one's going to hurt Tarheels. Especially when they are probably feeling a little better than they should holding close to Georgia Tech (overrated) and Wisconsin (probably overrated a tad as well... very mercurial team). Then again, I've never been good at picking games to do with NCSU. Now Chad, I'm not even an alum, nor that big of a fan, and I got them winning by 30... I look forward to your pick!
Chad -

Boston College @ Clemson
Saturday, 9/24/05, Noon ESPN Gameplan

Line: Clemson -3.0

Shane's Prediction: Clemson 32, Boston College 28
Chad's Prediction: Clemson 24, BC 20

Bet: Shane - It's a pity everyone plum forgot about this game when both teams lost last week. What should be taken from last week is that both teams are really right in the elite of the conference, especially given the way they won their other 2 games each. Might be an ugly rebound game to heartbreaking losses in which both teams were trying to finally show they are better than people give them credit for... but it should evolve into a classic in my mind. The winner of this game is going to make life miserable for quite a few opponents down the road... and could be an Atlantic division competitor should FSU lose to Virginia or NC State. Three point favorite to the home team... that's a sign the odds makers think these teams are even. This one will be a doozy. NOTE: I originally predicted 31-28... but that would be a wash, and that's almost certainly going to end up with me being wrong! But I would almost bet that it will indeed be a wash! Maybe if given that kind of pick deserves!
Chad -

#15 Georgia Tech @ #4 Virginia Tech

Saturday, 9/24/05, 3:30pm ABC Regional
Line: Tech (the V variety) - 11.5
Shane's Prediction: Virginia Tech 35, Georgia Tech 11
Chad's Prediction: Virginia Tech 34, Georgia Tech 14

Bet: Shane - Maybe this is to be the week the cream come to the top in the ACC (note that Florida State doesn't play!). Georgia Tech is overrated, in my mind. I think they've won three games they definitely should've won (this just in, Auburn's going to lose to Western Kentucky this week). But I think they are all Reggie Ball. Look at their struggles last week against Connecticut for proof (Ball was out sick). Even though it looks like Ball will be back this week, VT should be able to box him in and hit him all day. Unless PT Daniels rushes for 175 yards, they are through. No hope... sorry GT.
Chad -

#16 Notre Dame @ Washington

Saturday, 9/24/05, 3:30pm ABC Regional
Line: ND -13.5
Shane's Prediction: Notre Dame 28, Washington 27
Chad's Prediction: Notre Dame 38, Washington 10

Bet: Shane - This is one of the most interesting games of the week, for sure. I really think T Willingham was shafted by ND. And what a chance to make up for it. But while I think it's only a matter of time until he returns the Huskies to glory... it isn't yet. Notre Dame has never been to a team to come off a loss strong... but I think they clip UW.
Chad -

Michigan @ Wisconsin

Saturday, 9/24/05, 6:00pm ESPN2
Line: UM -3.0
Shane's Prediction: Wisconsin 31, Michigan 28
Chad's Prediction: Wisconsin 17, Michigan 10

Bet: Shane - I've never been good at picking Wisconsin games. I've never been a big fan of their style. They never look dominating... just enough to be victorious, I guess. They haven't beat up on anyone this year(sorry Temple, you don't count as anyone)... though you can argue wins over Bowling Green and UNC were both hard earned and well deserved. But basically I'm picking Wisconsin because I don't know who to pick and I'm not really excited right now about either team going into this game.
Chad -

#9 Louisville @ South Florida

Saturday, 9/24/05, 6:45pm ESPNU
Line: UL -20

Shane's Prediction: Louisville 45, South Florida 28 Shane's LPL
Chad's Prediction: Louisville 41, USF 10, CHAD's LEAD PIPE LOCK

Bet: Shane - You can tell I had control of the picking this week (though I was happy to let Chad sneak in his NCSU-UNC rivalry game). I have gotta say, this could be the biggest chance Louisville has to lose all season. USF played Penn State close in State College, and have won both games rather handily since. Getting Louisville, with all their Rose Bowl buzz, at home, really gives this team a chance to put the Bulls on the national map. Think about it, South Florida just came up to the "big show" with their move to the Big East... and really want to show they belong. I think a win by USF might end up being good for the conference, too, if its a good game, as it might show the conference has some depth which is seriously floundering right now with every team losing an out of conference game but WV and Louisville, and Pitt dive-bombing towards ESPN's Bottom 10. But I can't bear to pick USF to win this game... Louisville should escape. But it may well even be much closer than 20. My LOW to be sure!
Chad -

#0 Oklahoma @ Off A&M

Saturday, 9/NEVER/05, AllDaypm PAX
Line: OFFA&M -41.0
Shane's Prediction: Bob Stoops 2, OffA&M -3
Chad's Prediction: OFF A&M 5, OU 1

Bet: Shane - I think the predicting machine broke. Apparently OU will finally be able to avoid looking bad this week! But I'd watch out for A&M... they hit Oklahoma pretty bad in their December matchups the past couple seasons.
Chad -

#1 USC @ #24 Oregon

Saturday, 9/24/05, 7:00pm ABC Regional
Line: USC -21

Shane's Prediction: USC 48, Oregon 21
Chad's Prediction: USC 38, Oregon 24

Bet: Shane - 21 points!?! That's just two Reggie Bush's and a Lindell White! I hate to do this, but I can't pick Oregon here. But it could definitely happen. This game either gets ugly by halftime or goes to the wire. You've gotta remember the pride Oregon has. They had the longest home winning streak late in the 90s, I believe. They've slipped the last couple years... but they know they can play with USC. I just hope they can. As I said, if USC gets up 14 early, it's going to be a long night.
Chad -

THE GAME OF THE WEEK

#10 Tennessee @ #3 LSU
Monday, 9/26/05, 7:30pm ESPN 2

Line: LSU -7

Shane's Prediction: Tennessee 34, LSU 31
Chad's Prediction: LSU 28, UT 17

Bet: Shane - I'm starting to think people are jumping on the LSU bandwagon because of what has happened with Katrina and now Rita. After all, what's an LSU home game without a hurricane to move/postpone it (this is their third scheduled, and their third change). But Tennessee has always responded well after a loss. LSU has beaten me already once this season, and I'm going to challenge them to do it again. I think the spread is a little much, and if not for the Louisville game, this would be my lock of the week. Tennessee has really gotten an unfair shake by the spread Gods this season. They are still right there in the hunt for the BCS, though. And I think Riggs and the qbs... none of which played THAT badly last week... really come out this week. Boy, Tennessee is going to be happy to get back to Knoxville next week.... Made my life easier, though. Didn't have to change a lot of the setup to the page!
Chad -

Matchup	Shane Young	Chad Ringley
----------------------------------------	----------------------	---------------------
#21 IA @ #8 OSU (-7)	IOWA	OHIO ST
#11 PRDU @ MINN (-3.5)	MINNESOTA	MINNESOTA
UNC @ NCSU (-10)	NC STATE	NC STATE
BC @ CLEM (-3)	CLEMSON	CLEMSON
#15 GT @ #4 VT (-11.5)	VIRGINIA TECH	VA TECH
#16 ND (-13.5) @ WASH	WASHINGTON	N DAME
MICH(-3) @ WISC	WISCONSIN	WISCONSON
#9 LOUIS (-20) @ USF	SOUTH FLORIDA	LOUISVILLE
#1 USC (-21) @ OREG	USC	OREGON
#10 TENN @ #3 LSU (-7)	TENNESSEE	LSU

Shane's lock: South Florida +20 vs Louisville
Chad's lock: Louisville -20 vs. South Florida


Shane's Record Thus Far:
12-18 vs the spread
20-10 straight up
1-2 Locks of the Week

Chad's Record Thus Far:
14-16 vs the spread
23-7 straight up
1-2 Locks of the Week

Victorious!

WEEK 3 RESULTS

Louisville covered big -> as expected (win for us both no matter how you slice it)

Virginia escaped with a 3 point win over Syracuse -> wow, I don't think either of us saw it being that close (straight-up win, spread loss for us both)

Michigan State beat Notre Dame in a gajillion overtimes (or one) -> whoopsy to Shanesy. While both of us had ND winning, the loss particularly hit Shane square in the stomach (loss for us both straight-up and spread, Shane's LOW incorrect)

Miami snuck out of Clemson with a 6 point win after blowing a 10 point 4th quarter lead -> wow, that one sucks for Chad. Spread was 7, and Miami didn't cover by the two point conversion attempt. Went quite like I (Shane) thought. Straight-up win for us both, spread loss only for Chad.

UCLA says goodbye to all realistic hope this season for us OU fans... though OU did begin to turn it around -> Both of us couldn't bear to pick again OU on the spread. Our loss, as we both got the straight-up win, but the spread loss.

Alabama torched South Carolina -> Whoa, now we know why we're not paid for this! We both picked the Gamecocks to win even though Bama was favored. Big ol' losses all around.

Oregon snuck out a 3 point win vs. Fresno State -> Awesome! The spread was 2.5 so win by default of Oregon winning, though we had 10 and 16 respectively. We both were pretty close on the score, too.

Florida State's offense floundered again, but they kept on winning, as they nailed BC -> VICTORY! Chad wins finally gets his first correct Lock Of The Week. Shane is upset... he really thought BC was going to win that game... and now FSU is having to resort to incapacitating opposing qbs to help their anemic offense win. Spread and straight-up wins for Chad, losses for Shane.

USC was invited to join the NFC West this week after razing the Razorbacks of Arkansas -> Wins for both of us spread and straight. Wow, a 31 point spread covered easily!

USC just scored again, btw.

Florida got revenge for the Ron Zook years by outplaying Tennessee all-around by just enough to win, though it was still a very good game by both teams -> Shane wins in every possible way! GO GATORS! Chad loses on the spread... which is rough because he was right, the spread was too much. The last field goal did him in, or it would have been a wash.

All in all

Chad
Week 3: 4-6 vs. Spread ... 8-2 Outright ...

LPL - tear down the goal posts!

OVERALL: 14-16 vs. Spread ... 24-6 Outright ... 1-2 LPLs

Shane
Week 2: 5-5 vs. Spread ... 7-3 Outright ...

LPL takes it in the Drew Stanton

OVERALL: 12-18 vs. Spread ... 20-10 Outright ... 1-2 LPLs

Spread lead is down to two as Shane won two that Chad didn't (Florida and Clemson), Chad won one that Shane didn't (Boston College). All-in-all, neither of us have anything to write home about... yet! But stay tuned in week 3 to see us turn it around!

Can Chris Leak play the Tennessee defense like a video game? We'll find out Saturday evening at the Swamp.

COLLEGE FOOTBALL: WEEK 3 PREDICTIONS

Oregon State @ #11 Louisville

Saturday, 9/17/05, Noon ESPN
Line: Louisville -14.0

Shane's Prediction: Louisville 32, Oregon State 17
Chad's Prediction: Louisville 34, Oregon State 14

Bet: Shane - Louisville didn't look that great a couple weeks ago against Kentucky. If this one was on the West Coast, I'd seriously consider picking OSU straight up. Louisville won't decimate, but they should dominate.
Chad - Chad is under the weather this week, and was unable to make pull discussions. Look for him to come back with avengence!

#25 Virginia @ Syracuse
Saturday, 9/17/05, Noon ESPN 2

Line: Virginia -7.5
Shane's Prediction: Virginia 38, Syracuse 17
Chad's Prediction: Virginia 20, Syracuse 10

Bet: Shane - I want to pick Syracuse as I've always thought they were an underrated program. Not this time. They stuck with West Virginia to open the season, and their defense has looked quite good so far (22 points allowed in 2 games). But this week they have to stop Marques Hagans. The schedule doesn't get any easier for Syracuse either, as their next game is Florida State. Oh, did I forget to mention they put Notre Dame on their schedule in November. When those two games, as well as Louisville and Uconn remain on the road, it don't look good for them!

Michigan State @ #10 Notre Dame

Saturday, 9/17/05, 3:30pm ABC Regional
Line: ND -6.5
Shane's Prediction: Notre Dame 41, Michigan State 17 Shane's LOW
Chad's Prediction: Notre Dame 24, Michigan State 14

Bet: Shane - This game is traditionally a barnburner. Wait, all games involving Notre Dame are barnburners. But Notre Dame proves you can go home again as they return mighty triumphantly with a solid win.

#13 Miami @ #20 Clemson

Saturday, 9/17/05, 3:30pm ABC Regional
Line: The U -7.0
Shane's Prediction: Miami 24, Clemson 21
Chad's Prediction: Miami 27, Clemson 14

Bet: Shane - Heartbreak in South Carolina. Miami kicks a last minute field goal to win. Miami looked really solid in every facet of the game except kicking in Tallahassee. Now it's time that their kicking pulls them through. It's not that Clemson is bad, it's that Miami is better.
Chad -

#21 Oklahoma @ UCLA

Saturday, 9/17/05, 3:30pm ABC Regional
Line: UCLA -6.5
Shane's Prediction: UCLA 38, Oklahoma 35
Chad's Prediction: UCLA 38, Oklahoma 34

Bet: Shane - This one caused me a lot of consideration. I just don't see where this game is going to go. If UCLA comes out scoring, how can Oklahoma stick with them without a passing game and with the Bruins putting about 100,000 men in the box? Still, I think OU will somehow stay in this one. I hope they can pull it out.
Chad -

Alabama @ South Carolina

Saturday, 9/17/05, 3:30pm CBS
Line: UA -2
Shane's Prediction: South Carolina 28, Alabama 27
Chad's Prediction: South Carolina 24, Alabama 21

Bet: Shane - Wow, I can't believe I just picked the Gamecocks. But they had a rough go of it so far with UCF scaring them and Georgia grinding out a victory over them. I think you've gotta look for a rebound, and Alabama may be caught looking at pundit predictions for success a little too carefully.
Chad -

#23 Fresno State @ Oregon

Saturday, 9/17/05, 7:00pm TBS
Line: OU -2.5

Shane's Prediction: Oregon 47, Fresno State 31
Chad's Prediction: Oregon 41, Fresno State 31

Bet: Shane - This one should be a shootout. Oregon scored 38 and 47 in their first two games while Fresno scored 55. While the defenses they played against weren't such great programs, their own defenses still gave up quite a few points, showing both teams defenses are only so-so. I just don't see Fresno coming out of Eugene with a win, though. Maybe if they score early.
Chad -

#8 Florida State @ #17 Boston College

Saturday, 9/17/05, 7:45pm ESPN
Line: FSU -1

Shane's Prediction: Boston College 26, Florida State 14
Chad's Prediction: Florida State 16, Boston College 10 Chad's LOW

Bet: Shane - It's time to see if BC is for real baby! FSU is matched only by Oklahoma in their mediocre offensive play so far this season. Most people didn't pick BC to beat BYU in week 1, either!
Chad -

Arkansas @ #1 USC
Saturday, 9/17/05, 10:15pm FSN

Line: USC -31.5

Shane's Prediction: USC 58, Arkansas 17
Chad's Prediction: USC 49, Arkansas 10

Bet: Shane - USC covers. For a team struggling to hold on to its position in the middle of the SEC pack, travelling to Los Angeles will be a lonely road for the Razorbacks.
Chad -

THE GAME OF THE WEEK

#5 Tennessee @ #6 Florida
Saturday, 9/17/05, 8:00pm CBS National

Line: UF -6.0

Shane's Prediction: Florida 31, Tennessee 21
Chad's Prediction: Florida 24, Tennessee 21

Bet: Shane - THIS IS WHEN COLLEGE FOOTBALL SEASON STARTS. In my mind, this game epitomizes the start of fall, and with it the start of the college season. Really not sure how good either team is. I don't think UT is as bad as they played versus UAB. I think the Vegas people are giving them a bit of a jip in such a large margin. Remember, the critics had UT in the National Championship picture a lot more than they did UF before this season started. Still, I'm looking for an exciting game from Chris Leak that will bring back memories of the 96 Championship team, with a sprinkle of Donovan McNabb. Boy, with a game like this on tap, it's great to be alive!

Matchup	Shane Young	Chad Ringley
----------------------------------------	----------------------	---------------------
OSU @ #11 LOUIS (-14)	LOUISVILLE	LOUISVILLE
#25 UVA (-7.5) @ SYRACUSE	VIRGINIA	VIRGINIA
MSU @ ND (-6.5)	ND	ND
UMFL(-7) @ CLEM	CLEMSON	MIAMI
#21 OU @ UCLA (-6.5)	OKLAHOMA	OKLAHOMA
BAMA (-2) @ SCAR	S CAROLINA	S CAROLINA
#23 FRESST @ ORU (-2.5)	OREGON	OREGON
#8 FSU (-1) @ #17 BC	BOSTON COLL	FLORIDA STATE
ARK @ #1 USC (-31.5)	USC	USC
#5 TENN @ #6 UF (-6)	FLORIDA	TENNESSEE

Shane's lock: Notre Dame -6.5 vs Michigan State
Chad's lock: Tennessee +6 @ Florida


Shane's Record Thus Far:
7-13 vs the spread
13-7 straight up
1-1 Locks of the Week

Chad's Record Thus Far:
10-10 vs the spread
15-5 straight up
0-2 Locks of the Week