The shootout in the desert baby! Matt Leinart and SC go to Tempe to take on Derek Hagan and the red-hot Sun Devils of Arizona State.

COLLEGE FOOTBALL: WEEK 5 PREDICTIONS

#2 Texas @ Missouri

Saturday, 10/1/05, Noon ABC Regional
Line: Texas -14.5

Chad's Prediction: Texas 38, Missouri 21

Shane's Prediction: Texas 32, Missouri 14
Chad - Anyone who says the Longhorns are looking past Mizzou to the Red River Shootout doesn't have have their head screwed on straight. Brad Smith is a much less dangerous version of Vince Young, that the Texas defense sees in all it's glory everyday in practice. The Texas running game will be too much for Mizzou to contain, and the Longhorns will cruise in Tiger land.

Shane - First of all... it's October already!?! Man I hate winter. Well, if it weren't for college sports season. And Christmas. But come January and February, the world is just too cold. I've been back and forth on this one forever in my mind. Not over who would win. But how close it would be. It could be a surprise close one. But I don't believe Texas will face that until later this season. Especially after offensive struggles last game... they should be a chuggin' train this week. And the D steps up a bit.


#3 Virginia Tech @ West Virginia
Saturday, 10/1/05, Noon ESPN
Line: VA Tech -10.0
Chad's Prediction: VA Tech 24, WVU 3

Shane's Prediction: VA Tech 42 , WVU 27
Chad: Stat of the week: VA Tech has allowed a grand total of 2 offensive touchdowns this year: 1 on the opening drive to NC State, and one to Reggie Ball and GT in the 51-7 route. So...do you have faith in the WV offense in scoring against THIS defense? I didn't think so. No doubt Morgantown is a tough enviorment, and it's a rivarly game...but you got to recognize..it takes something special to score on the Hokies.
Shane: Another game I've had on my mind for a while as to how it would go. But recently I've seen too many people hyping West Virginia to win this one, and I'm less and less confident by the day that it could happen. It is in WV. But their season so far shows them to be a middle-of-the-pack team with close wins over Syracuse and Maryland. Everyone... and I mean everyone... is thinking WV this weekend. Heck, Yahoo's front story is about it. Not the big matchup of the week like it usually is... but WV-VT. VTech is starting, in my mind, to look like the team to win it all. I'm not saying they are. But their D is stout, and their O still is improving too. We'll see... there's some tough games still to come. But things don't often repeat themselves, and this upset will not.

Michigan @ #11 Michigan State

Saturday, 10/1/05, Noon ABC Regional

Line: MSU -4.0

Chad's Prediction: MSU 31, UM 24

Shane's Prediction: UM 35, MSU 28
Chad: Drew Stanton, Javon Ringer, and the MSU offense have proved their worth in 2005. The difference between the Spartans and the Wolverines? Leadership under center. Stanton is a terrific QB and is right now the hottest QB in the Big 10. Speaking of, what happened to the Chad Henne of 2004? With Hart banged up and Henne's shaky play, Michigan is on a deep downward spiral. The rivarly aspect of this game keeps it close, but expect MSU to keep rolling.

Shane: Is it just me, or has everybody and their brother decided to jump on the Michigan State bandwagon all of the sudden!?! Let's think back to preseason. What were the teams we were thinking were primed for the Big 10 race? Well not much has changed in a few weeks. They're all basically the same teams we considered preseason. We were talking about Ohio State, Michigan, and Iowa (well, they kinda fell off, but still). Then the second group? Purdue, Minnesota, Wisconsin... and maybe Penn State. Nowhere did we talk about the Spartans. Our mistake? NO! Michigan State hasn't done much of anything this season. They beat Notre Dame in South Bend. I think I've talked before about how anything at all is possible in that historic callamity zone. Was Boston College the better team in the 90's (or 3 years ago)? Was Notre Dame better last year when they played Michigan last year? Michigan State beat three other semi-patzies (Kent State, Hawaii, Illinois). But this team is a team that's got some talent on all sides of the ball... but doesn't have the consistancy in any part of it's game. Passing? Stanton has been explosive against the lesser teams. But his percentage was down in South Bend. And you can fault the coaching if you like... but they decided they couldn't rely on them to lead in the 4th quarter. After State went up 21 in the 3rd quarter... Stanton's remaining #s... 2 out of 5 for 28 yards... 1 of which was fumbled after being thrown in a touch spot... and a sack. He ran the ball well, but can he throw when called upon? Maybe. Slightly bigger question comes in the running game. The forgotten is that they only ran for 161 yards vs Notre Dame, 48 of which were Stanton. Those are passable numbers I guess... but the reality is they couldn't run out the clock in the 4th quarter. And that brings us to the defense, which gave up that 21 point lead. I know I sound like I'm focusing on that quarter a little too much, but the reality is it showed us something. MSU isn't that special. MSU's secondary can be exploited, and I believe their offense can be shut down when they play a decent defense. Michigan has only given up 269 yards per game so far this season, even while playing 2 ranked teams (ND and Wisconsin) AND a decent Northern Illinois team. And Chad Henne is ready to break out this game. This is almost the same team we saw play in the Rose Bowl last year. They need to get Michael Hart back. And they don't have Braylon Edwards, agreed. But come on, it wasn't all Edwards last year. Henne was a leader. And he can be one again. They are going to get a peptalk telling them they aren't out of the Big 10 race at all (it all still likely comes down to the annual UM-OSU game in reality), and they are going to come out and play some passionate ball. I'd make this my lock of the week if my disdain for MSU didn't effect me so much (stupid Mateen Cleaves).


#18 Minnesota @ Penn State
Saturday, 10/1/05, 3:30pm ABC Regional
Line: Minnesota -3.0
Chad's Prediction: Minnesota 24, Penn State 20

Shane's Prediction: Penn State 30, Minnesota 25
Chad: Have you seen Lawerence Maroney? Does he garner your Heisman vote? He should. The Golden Gophers are red hot and Penn State has been shaky at times this year...while Minnesota has played solid throughout. Expect alot of Maroney...too much for the Nittany Lion's defense...especially late in the 4th quarter.

Shane: This just in, Lawerence Maroney might just be human. Penn State has showed me some serious mettle so for this season. They beat South Florida quite easily (that looks better now, doesn't it)... and won their next two. Last week they needed a last minute td to escape Evanston. But what I get from that game is that they have that grit to win tough games. And in the Big 10, that's everything. Just a word of note, Northwestern is 2-2 after beating two decent MAC teams in Ohio and Northern Illinois... and they played 3 good quarters (whooops, probably should play the 2nd too) versus Arizona State on the road. Penn State can slow Maroney down just enough to stay slightly in front... and wins with the support of the home crowd. I can't guarantee this one... but this is Joe Pa's chance... and I really believe in the guy. Oh yeah, plus they got some big talent (Derrick Williams is da bomb people!). It's make or break time in State College!

#23 Iowa State @ Nebraska
Saturday, 10/1/05, 3:30pm ABC Regional
Line: NU -4.0
Chad's Prediction: Iowa State 17, NU 14

Shane's Prediction: Nebraska 24, ISU 23

Shane: This one almost slipped by our radar screen... but I think it's for the Big 12 North. These teams are way better than Colorado, Kansas, and Kansas State... and Missouri may be demoralized if they lose this week having already lost to a very excellent New Mexico team a few weeks back. People just really don't want to pick the Cyclones it seems... but they are good. The one problem? They are going to Lincoln. And don't look now, but I think the droning buzz is really starting ratchet up from fans with rising expectations in the state of corn. Don't look now, but Bret Meyer is 62 of 91 for 626 yards and 4 td. 4 picks as well, but still... If Iowa State can win this game, maybe, just maybe, we should slip his name into the Heisman watch envelope quietly. I mean, seriously, a sophomore led them to a big victory over highly touted Iowa... and last week led them through a tough game to pull out a victory. Iowa State isn't that special. I'm not all that impressed by their receivers. But if the Cyclones win this game... WATCH OUT. They'd have the best team in the north out of the way... and, oh, look, they play bulldogs Baylor and Oklahoma State from the south. They get Colorado at home. That would leave games at Missouri and at Texas A&M as their only real worries. Will they win them both? Eh, we'll see. But they definitely have the back road to an undefeated regular season. And wouldn't that be something. That said, I think Nebraska nips them in what could be... THE BEST BIG 12 GAME OF THE YEAR! There you go, I said it! :-)

#5 Florida @ #15 Alabama
Saturday, 10/1/05, 3:30pm CBS
Line: UF -4.0
Chad's Prediction: Florida 24, Alabama 21

Shane's Prediction: Florida 28, Alabama 23

Shane: I'm not all that hyped about this one yet. Yet. This weekend, I bet I'll be bouncing off the walls. I think people are starting to overhype the Bama. Why? Can I remind people they've only won by a combined 62 points (ie 15.5 ppg)... versus South Carolina, Arkansas, Southern Miss, and Middle Tennessee!?! That said, I've been on the Brodie bandwagon since way back when. With a big win, he definitely starts to hit the Heisman buzz. But I'm slowly becoming pumped about Florida. There's something I wanted to point out about conferences with consistantly huge depth and gobs of very heated rivalries. The conferences are the Big 10 and SEC. The problem? Playing a top college football program is like playing Russian Roulette. The more you play, the more likely you are to lose. Each time it's like escaping death, too. 7, 8, 9, even 10 teams in the Big 10 and SEC are good, basically every year. And the reality is that no team, no matter how good generally can escape these conferences to play for the national title. The Big 10 is already in tatters... and I guarantee no one will escape it without a loss at some point (Ohio State, you may've really done yourself in a few weeks ago). The SEC has already seen two (three if you count Auburn) of its top teams go down. And there are just so many teams lying in wait for the others. But these two teams are the best hopes of escaping. I'm specifically highlighting Florida because they really are starting to show me they have evolved to that next level. The win over Tennessee was not the prettiest, but it was sound. Now they have Bama, then LSU two weeks down the road, both on the road. Oh yeah... Georgia. Whoops... forgot Florida State... oh yeah, Vandy and SteveSpurriertown will want wins too. But Florida really gives that feeling that they've stepped to an elite class. Bama, on the other hand, gets their three toughest remaining opponents at home (UF, UT, LSU). So though they aren't Florida, they have a slightly better road. The truth is, though, that teams rarely come out of these conferences alive no matter how good they are. Look back at the recent survivors... LSU in 2003, OSU in 2002, UT in 97/98, UF in 96... and almost without fail, that conference's other best teams were on a down year. So, can UF survive the season? I'd like to say yes, but the reality is all signs point to know.

Kansas State @ Oklahoma

Saturday, 10/1/05, 7:00pm FSN Central

Line: OU -6.5

Chad's Prediction: Oklahoma 28, K-State 17, LPL

Shane's Prediction: Oklahoma 42, Kansas State 27

Shane: Yay, Oklahoma is favored to win a game again! It's started to feel lonely being a Sooner fan once more. And the scarier thought... could this be the last time this season the Sooners are favorites!?! Baylor be darned... if this team doesn't improve... it could get ugly. So the question comes to: have they improved? They definitely showed signs of life versus UCLA. Rhett Bomar emerged as a starting quarterback, for starters. For biggers, they at least showed that they can stick close to a pretty good team on the road. But they need to show they are for real this week back at home, where, after a week off, perhaps the unbeatable mentality can reemerge and the Sooners can get back on track. But, we're going to need to some significant steps forward. Options for this improvement include quarterback, wide receiver, blocking, secondary, play calling, and attitude. I may've said it two weeks ago, but this game is now the biggest game for OU this season. Bigger than the last couple season's National Championship games! They need this one bad... to show that they are back on track to some degree. If they win handily, perhaps we start talking about a team that CAN win 6 games and get to a bowl... and can maybe upset the Texas 3 (UT, TAMU, TTU). Weirdest thing, though, is seeing no numbers next to these two teams when they are playing. (First since Halloween 1991, from what I found on soonerstats.com).

#13 Notre Dame @ #22 Purdue

Saturday, 10/1/05, 7:45pm ESPN
Line: Purdue -3.0
Chad's Prediction: Notre Dame 38, Purdue 24

Shane's Prediction: Notre Dame 31, Purdue 28

Shane: This one is a coin toss that I have no clue on. Both teams are coming off losses and tough to predict anyways. I'm going to side with ND because they've consistantly looked a little more consistant than years past... but they looked good in 02 as well (wow, 2 mentions of 2002 Notre Dame in one week). Neither team should be overlooked at any point this season. I have to say, I feel the least confident in this one of any pick THIS SEASON. Should be another good one!

South Florida @ #9 Miami
Saturday, 10/1/05, 8:00pm ESPNU
Line: The U -21.0
Chad's Prediction: Miami 34, USF 10

Shane's Prediction: Miami 72, South Florida 7 LPL

Shane: I'm surprised that this one isn't closer spreadwise. But I will not let that stop me from picking this one as my lock of the week. Miami got their heart ripped out by some heartbreaking special teams..... and really hasn't had the chance to take out their aggression since playing two good teams in Clemson and Colorado. Now, it's payback time. Our contestant hails from the mighty land of Tampa Bay! They have 43250 students and specialize in medical research and water treatment. Let's meet, the University of South Florida. *Game Show entrance music plays*. Now that I have that out of my way... let's remember the fact that they played at home and a Louisville team that I think all-in-all may prove to be slightly less stellar than we thought. They also had the element of surprise and something big to prove. This week, they travel on the road to a historic college football school with a lot of pride and passion. Miami takes out their frustrations. Big. Real big.

GAME OF THE WEEK
@

#1 USC @ #14 Arizona State

3:30pm ABC Regional

Line: SC -17.0

Chad's Prediction: USC 41, Arizona State 21
Shane's Prediction: Arizona State 42, USC 35

Shane: This is it! I really have come to believe that Arizona State is going to win this one and strike a blow for the world of college football alike. The reality is, if Arizona State doesn't win this week, no one beats USC the rest of this season. Cal is overrated and doesn't have a chance in Duke of beating them. I want to pick Notre Dame... and anything can happen in South Bend (see Michigan-Michigan State game for more on this), but I don't know if they can pull it off when so overmatched. Arizona and Fresno State I'd love to see pull the upset... but face it, that isn't likely. That leaves UCLA as the only other good shot. And the game is on the east side of town. And I don't believe anyone will beat them in January either. This is it. And Arizona State has the team and the cards falling into place to win it. The Sun Devils played a great game against LSU and came up just short. They've beaten up their other three opponents. Sam Keller and Derek Hagan are rocking. And they have the matchup I think to do it. They can stick with USC. This game is going to be a slugfest. The over/under is a whopping 72 points (versus 37.5 for Nebraska-Iowa State)... and I bet the over is the correct choice! But USC won't be able to run them out of the building. And the State defense is excellent at putting pressure on the quarterback. The reality is USC may be slightly better. But Arizona State will keep it close. Then they'll get the big play/defensive stand in the 4th quarter or overtime with the help of the home crowd. This game will be everything the LSU game should've been. And USC and the quarterback who thought being down 21-0 to Oregon was "fun" will face a dark day when they realize all they worked for is over before they know it. This one will be remembered just like the Cal game in '03. Mark my words (considered making it my lock of the week if not for the South Florida shellacking on the slate). USC loses. And the peasants rejoice!

Fans from the state of Florida rejoice!
Top: Amarri Jackson breaks one leading South Florida to a decisive victory over #9 Louisville
Bottom: University of Central Florida fans tear down the goal post after winning their first game since the 2003 season

WEEK 4 RESULTS

Ohio State 31, Iowa 6
Straight-up: Win for Chad, Loss for Shane
Spread: Win for Chad, Loss for Shane
Shane: Wow, I didn't think Iowa was this bad. It wasn't even close.

Minnesota 42, Purdue 35 2 OT
Straight-up: Win for both
Spread: Win for both
Shane: The Big 10 is awesome. No other conference has this many nailbiters year-in, year-out. The SEC is close. The Pac 10 might if it weren't for USC. Big 12, nope. And we won't even discuss the ACC/Big Least.

North Carolina 31, North Carolina State 24
Straight-up: Loss for both
Spread: Loss for both
Shane: That one really hurts. Definitely my worst pick of the week. Probably of the season thus far. I was certain on this one.

Boston College 16, Clemson 13 OT
Straight-up: Loss for both
Spread: Loss for both
Shane: Will someone please give these teams respect? Boston College played very valiantly to come out with a victory. Clemson's play calling may have been a bit suspect... they always seem to be conservative in overtime... and overtime is the worst time to be so... you have to strike fast and furious as the style of play dictates. Can't fault Charlie Whitehurst for trying so hard, though. And let's not forget they were one wide open pass from winning in regulation versus Miami. They should STILL be ranked in my mind. Both teams should. Neither team has a bad loss. Both teams look like cream of the ACC crop... right behind VTech, FSU, and Miami (yes, they should be above GTech... we'll let you know on Virginia when they play someone).

Virginia Tech 51, Georgia Tech 7
Straight-up: Win for both
Spread: Win for both
Shane: Was ANYONE suprised by this? Not the two of us, as we both had VTech covering handily. In Blacksburg, Virginia Tech is going to be tough to beat... as most defensively-oriented teams are.

Notre Dame 36, Washington 17
Straight-up: Win for both
Spread: Win for Chad, loss for Shane
Shane: Ok, ok, I won't pick Arizona or Washington one more time this season (though... Cal and UCLA... OK! Don't worry, Ty, you'll always be a winner in my books! ;-)

Wisconsin 23, Michigan 20
Straight-up: Win for both
Spread: Win for both
Shane: Yay! I picked the Badgers correctly for the first time since ... who knows! Shows once more if all else fails, pick the home team!

South Florida ALOT, Louisville Not Nearly So Much (45-14)
Straight-up: Loss for both
Spread: Win for Shane, loss for Chad
LPL: Win for Shane, loss for Chad
Shane: "I have gotta say, this could be the biggest chance Louisville has to lose all season." I talked endlessly about this one to Chad all week. I really had the feeling about this one, and, WHAMMO! USF was just ready to play. You could see this one coming from a mile away if you look at the instability of Louisville (almost losing to UK) and the underappreciated ability of Louisville (three good games). Miami this week? Nah, sorry, USF, time to go back to being the stepped upon!

USC 45, Oregon 13
Straight-up: Win for both
Spread: Win for Shane, loss for Chad
Shane: How in the world did USC cover!?! I bowl on Saturday nights quite often back at home in Orlando. Chad calls me with updates. I was in the middle of a great evening when Chad calls to tell me USF and Oregon are up! WOOHOO! I picked USC to cover... but boy would it have been nice to see Oregon win. USC showed something here. Still, I'm undecided about how to pick this week's ASU game.

Tennessee 30, LSU 27 OT
Straight-up: Win for Shane, loss for Chad
Spread: Win for Shane, loss for Chad
Shane: What a fun weekend this weekend was! Not only did 3 of our 10 games go to OT (2 more decided by 7 or less)... but NFL had a plethora of close ones (only one team led by more than 7 (Cincy) in the early games at one point (about 3:15)). It was sad to see LSU lose with so much to play for... but you can't expect Tennessee to lose two in a row. Perhaps LSU celebrated too early. You can't count out a team that can become so productive. And for once the qb swapping brought the best qb into the game just in time! The SEC will be a battle again this year.

All in all

Chad
Week 3: 5-5 vs. Spread ... 6-4 Outright ...

LPL - You didn't pick a Florida team... I'M SORRY! ERRR!

OVERALL: 19-21 vs. Spread ... 30-10 Outright ... 1-3 LPLs

Shane
Week 2: 6-4 vs. Spread ... 6-4 Outright ...

LPL - Fight, Fight for Old ... South Florida?!? Yippiddy-do-dah!

OVERALL: 18-22 vs. Spread ... 26-14 Outright ... 2-2 LPLs

It's nail-biting time folks. Chad's lead evaporated to one on the spread. Still, both of us need to pick it up, as we have to be above .500 by the time its all said and done! We both took straight-up hits this week with the unforecasted losses by NCSU, Clemson, and Louisville. But I'm .500 again in the locks... and that's where the serious prognosticating comes into play, I believe!

Here's what we'll be talking about in Week 5:

October 1st Games:

#2 Texas @ Missouri, Noon ABC Regional
#3 Virginia Tech @ West Virginia, Noon ABC Regional
Michigan @ #11 Michigan State, Noon ABC Regional
Indiana @ #17 Wisconsin, Noon ESPN2
#19 Virginia @ Maryland, Noon ESPN Gameplan/JP Sports
#1 USC @ #14 Arizona State, 3:30pm ABC Regional
#5 Florida @ #15 Alabama, 3:30pm CBS
Kansas State @ Oklahoma, 7:00pm FSN Central
#13 Notre Dame @ #22 Purdue, 7:45pm ESPN
South Florida @ #9 Miami, 8:00pm ESPNU

Just wanted to let everybody know about a site where top college football blogging minds come together to create a Top-25 poll each week. The website is at http://mgoblog.blogspot.com/2005/05/blogpoll-central.html.

(Note that I'm looking at the Week 4 poll... which doesn't take into account this weekend's games). My thoughts: VT should be above UF. They have shown they can beat tough teams on the road (NCSU). UCLA and Texas Tech deserve more props. Both have exciting football teams that I think can win games. I know the site owner doesn't want schedule to play a part in the poll... but Texas Tech should be rolling hardcore by the time OU, Texas, and A&M come a knockin'. Alabama deserves more props... even if they did struggle with Arkansas. Michigan State and Cal are overrated. Iowa State underrated (though the test comes this week. If they beat Nebraska, then people will start paying attention!). New Mexico deserved more attention... until they lost this week. They beat a good Missouri team and were generally a competitive team. Clemson should have been higher rated. Even if they did lose again. They find a way to play OT, they're 4-0. If we go back to ties (we should!) they are undefeated. And no, Vanderbilt shouldn't be considered to be ranked. They haven't played anyone yet. Penn State on the other hand.......


Chad, perhaps you want to take a look and tell me your thoughts. Also, you can sign up for the quite infrequent emails (from what they say) athttp://lists.mgoboard.com/listinfo.cgi/blogpoll-mgoboard.com.

Take care all,
Shane

It's all about the quarterbacks this week, as Tennessee's QB tandem of Erik Ainge (10) and Rick Clausen (16) travel to Baton Rouge to face JaMarcus Russell and the Tigers of LSU.

COLLEGE FOOTBALL: WEEK 4 PREDICTIONS

#21 Iowa @ #8 Ohio State

Saturday, 9/24/05, Noon ABC Regional
Line: OSU -7.0

Shane's Prediction: Iowa 31, Ohio State 28
Chad's Prediction: Ohio State 17, Iowa 10

Bet: Shane - Shocker to start the week off. I don't think OSU responded very good to their loss to Texas last week against San Diego State. I'm not sure Iowa wins this one... but I think people are writing off Iowa because people kind of forgot they expected Iowa State to be good this year... and are punishing Iowa for it. Iowa's still a good football team... and I think OSU stumbles once again. Maybe if the offense can make the leap and trust Matt Zwick or Troy Smith with the job 100% of the time (qb tandems suck, period... look at the teams losing this year (Tennessee, Ohio State, Oklahoma?). And how many times have you seen teams win the national title with split qbs... if Georgia had given David Greene the job outright in 2003... I think they might have won either the 03 or 04 National Title... and Shockley would've still been good!). I am not on the Iowa bandwagon that drove me nuts last year (and when they beat UF a few years back)... but you gotta give em some 'spect!
Chad -

#11 Purdue @ Minnesota
Saturday, 9/24/05, Noon ESPN

Line: Minnesota -3.5
Shane's Prediction: Minnesota 28, Purdue 21
Chad's Prediction: Minnesota 31, Purdue 24

Bet: Shane - I'm all about Purude. I just kept trying to pick them to win this game, though, and couldn't. Minnesota is off to a solid start, and there's nothing momentum-wise holding them back (though I believe they'll end up with 3 or 4 losses as this team strikes me as a team that slumps once it loses a game). Games like these, though, just bring back memories of Drew Brees' great time at Purdue... where every week was a battle (Brandon Kirsch, you listening? ... Hmm, apparently not... A - I don't think he reads this! B - He had a horrible game last week against Arizona!).
Chad -

North Carolina @ North Carolina State

Saturday, 9/24/05, Noon ESPN Gameplan
Line: NCState -10.0
Shane's Prediction: North Carolina State 47, North Carolina 17
Chad's Prediction: NC State 24, UNC 10

Bet: Shane - Yeah, ummmmm... this is going to be a good old fashioned barn raising. And UNC is the barn. And raising means systematic annihilation. I've been waiting for a while for NCSU to get someone to play to get some retribution for a game they well shoulda won versus VTech... and I think this is at. At home... responding to a tough loss to a top team... retribution for last year's game... yeah, this one's going to hurt Tarheels. Especially when they are probably feeling a little better than they should holding close to Georgia Tech (overrated) and Wisconsin (probably overrated a tad as well... very mercurial team). Then again, I've never been good at picking games to do with NCSU. Now Chad, I'm not even an alum, nor that big of a fan, and I got them winning by 30... I look forward to your pick!
Chad -

Boston College @ Clemson
Saturday, 9/24/05, Noon ESPN Gameplan

Line: Clemson -3.0

Shane's Prediction: Clemson 32, Boston College 28
Chad's Prediction: Clemson 24, BC 20

Bet: Shane - It's a pity everyone plum forgot about this game when both teams lost last week. What should be taken from last week is that both teams are really right in the elite of the conference, especially given the way they won their other 2 games each. Might be an ugly rebound game to heartbreaking losses in which both teams were trying to finally show they are better than people give them credit for... but it should evolve into a classic in my mind. The winner of this game is going to make life miserable for quite a few opponents down the road... and could be an Atlantic division competitor should FSU lose to Virginia or NC State. Three point favorite to the home team... that's a sign the odds makers think these teams are even. This one will be a doozy. NOTE: I originally predicted 31-28... but that would be a wash, and that's almost certainly going to end up with me being wrong! But I would almost bet that it will indeed be a wash! Maybe if given that kind of pick deserves!
Chad -

#15 Georgia Tech @ #4 Virginia Tech

Saturday, 9/24/05, 3:30pm ABC Regional
Line: Tech (the V variety) - 11.5
Shane's Prediction: Virginia Tech 35, Georgia Tech 11
Chad's Prediction: Virginia Tech 34, Georgia Tech 14

Bet: Shane - Maybe this is to be the week the cream come to the top in the ACC (note that Florida State doesn't play!). Georgia Tech is overrated, in my mind. I think they've won three games they definitely should've won (this just in, Auburn's going to lose to Western Kentucky this week). But I think they are all Reggie Ball. Look at their struggles last week against Connecticut for proof (Ball was out sick). Even though it looks like Ball will be back this week, VT should be able to box him in and hit him all day. Unless PT Daniels rushes for 175 yards, they are through. No hope... sorry GT.
Chad -

#16 Notre Dame @ Washington

Saturday, 9/24/05, 3:30pm ABC Regional
Line: ND -13.5
Shane's Prediction: Notre Dame 28, Washington 27
Chad's Prediction: Notre Dame 38, Washington 10

Bet: Shane - This is one of the most interesting games of the week, for sure. I really think T Willingham was shafted by ND. And what a chance to make up for it. But while I think it's only a matter of time until he returns the Huskies to glory... it isn't yet. Notre Dame has never been to a team to come off a loss strong... but I think they clip UW.
Chad -

Michigan @ Wisconsin

Saturday, 9/24/05, 6:00pm ESPN2
Line: UM -3.0
Shane's Prediction: Wisconsin 31, Michigan 28
Chad's Prediction: Wisconsin 17, Michigan 10

Bet: Shane - I've never been good at picking Wisconsin games. I've never been a big fan of their style. They never look dominating... just enough to be victorious, I guess. They haven't beat up on anyone this year(sorry Temple, you don't count as anyone)... though you can argue wins over Bowling Green and UNC were both hard earned and well deserved. But basically I'm picking Wisconsin because I don't know who to pick and I'm not really excited right now about either team going into this game.
Chad -

#9 Louisville @ South Florida

Saturday, 9/24/05, 6:45pm ESPNU
Line: UL -20

Shane's Prediction: Louisville 45, South Florida 28 Shane's LPL
Chad's Prediction: Louisville 41, USF 10, CHAD's LEAD PIPE LOCK

Bet: Shane - You can tell I had control of the picking this week (though I was happy to let Chad sneak in his NCSU-UNC rivalry game). I have gotta say, this could be the biggest chance Louisville has to lose all season. USF played Penn State close in State College, and have won both games rather handily since. Getting Louisville, with all their Rose Bowl buzz, at home, really gives this team a chance to put the Bulls on the national map. Think about it, South Florida just came up to the "big show" with their move to the Big East... and really want to show they belong. I think a win by USF might end up being good for the conference, too, if its a good game, as it might show the conference has some depth which is seriously floundering right now with every team losing an out of conference game but WV and Louisville, and Pitt dive-bombing towards ESPN's Bottom 10. But I can't bear to pick USF to win this game... Louisville should escape. But it may well even be much closer than 20. My LOW to be sure!
Chad -

#0 Oklahoma @ Off A&M

Saturday, 9/NEVER/05, AllDaypm PAX
Line: OFFA&M -41.0
Shane's Prediction: Bob Stoops 2, OffA&M -3
Chad's Prediction: OFF A&M 5, OU 1

Bet: Shane - I think the predicting machine broke. Apparently OU will finally be able to avoid looking bad this week! But I'd watch out for A&M... they hit Oklahoma pretty bad in their December matchups the past couple seasons.
Chad -

#1 USC @ #24 Oregon

Saturday, 9/24/05, 7:00pm ABC Regional
Line: USC -21

Shane's Prediction: USC 48, Oregon 21
Chad's Prediction: USC 38, Oregon 24

Bet: Shane - 21 points!?! That's just two Reggie Bush's and a Lindell White! I hate to do this, but I can't pick Oregon here. But it could definitely happen. This game either gets ugly by halftime or goes to the wire. You've gotta remember the pride Oregon has. They had the longest home winning streak late in the 90s, I believe. They've slipped the last couple years... but they know they can play with USC. I just hope they can. As I said, if USC gets up 14 early, it's going to be a long night.
Chad -

THE GAME OF THE WEEK

#10 Tennessee @ #3 LSU
Monday, 9/26/05, 7:30pm ESPN 2

Line: LSU -7

Shane's Prediction: Tennessee 34, LSU 31
Chad's Prediction: LSU 28, UT 17

Bet: Shane - I'm starting to think people are jumping on the LSU bandwagon because of what has happened with Katrina and now Rita. After all, what's an LSU home game without a hurricane to move/postpone it (this is their third scheduled, and their third change). But Tennessee has always responded well after a loss. LSU has beaten me already once this season, and I'm going to challenge them to do it again. I think the spread is a little much, and if not for the Louisville game, this would be my lock of the week. Tennessee has really gotten an unfair shake by the spread Gods this season. They are still right there in the hunt for the BCS, though. And I think Riggs and the qbs... none of which played THAT badly last week... really come out this week. Boy, Tennessee is going to be happy to get back to Knoxville next week.... Made my life easier, though. Didn't have to change a lot of the setup to the page!
Chad -

Matchup	Shane Young	Chad Ringley
----------------------------------------	----------------------	---------------------
#21 IA @ #8 OSU (-7)	IOWA	OHIO ST
#11 PRDU @ MINN (-3.5)	MINNESOTA	MINNESOTA
UNC @ NCSU (-10)	NC STATE	NC STATE
BC @ CLEM (-3)	CLEMSON	CLEMSON
#15 GT @ #4 VT (-11.5)	VIRGINIA TECH	VA TECH
#16 ND (-13.5) @ WASH	WASHINGTON	N DAME
MICH(-3) @ WISC	WISCONSIN	WISCONSON
#9 LOUIS (-20) @ USF	SOUTH FLORIDA	LOUISVILLE
#1 USC (-21) @ OREG	USC	OREGON
#10 TENN @ #3 LSU (-7)	TENNESSEE	LSU

Shane's lock: South Florida +20 vs Louisville
Chad's lock: Louisville -20 vs. South Florida


Shane's Record Thus Far:
12-18 vs the spread
20-10 straight up
1-2 Locks of the Week

Chad's Record Thus Far:
14-16 vs the spread
23-7 straight up
1-2 Locks of the Week

Victorious!

WEEK 3 RESULTS

Louisville covered big -> as expected (win for us both no matter how you slice it)

Virginia escaped with a 3 point win over Syracuse -> wow, I don't think either of us saw it being that close (straight-up win, spread loss for us both)

Michigan State beat Notre Dame in a gajillion overtimes (or one) -> whoopsy to Shanesy. While both of us had ND winning, the loss particularly hit Shane square in the stomach (loss for us both straight-up and spread, Shane's LOW incorrect)

Miami snuck out of Clemson with a 6 point win after blowing a 10 point 4th quarter lead -> wow, that one sucks for Chad. Spread was 7, and Miami didn't cover by the two point conversion attempt. Went quite like I (Shane) thought. Straight-up win for us both, spread loss only for Chad.

UCLA says goodbye to all realistic hope this season for us OU fans... though OU did begin to turn it around -> Both of us couldn't bear to pick again OU on the spread. Our loss, as we both got the straight-up win, but the spread loss.

Alabama torched South Carolina -> Whoa, now we know why we're not paid for this! We both picked the Gamecocks to win even though Bama was favored. Big ol' losses all around.

Oregon snuck out a 3 point win vs. Fresno State -> Awesome! The spread was 2.5 so win by default of Oregon winning, though we had 10 and 16 respectively. We both were pretty close on the score, too.

Florida State's offense floundered again, but they kept on winning, as they nailed BC -> VICTORY! Chad wins finally gets his first correct Lock Of The Week. Shane is upset... he really thought BC was going to win that game... and now FSU is having to resort to incapacitating opposing qbs to help their anemic offense win. Spread and straight-up wins for Chad, losses for Shane.

USC was invited to join the NFC West this week after razing the Razorbacks of Arkansas -> Wins for both of us spread and straight. Wow, a 31 point spread covered easily!

USC just scored again, btw.

Florida got revenge for the Ron Zook years by outplaying Tennessee all-around by just enough to win, though it was still a very good game by both teams -> Shane wins in every possible way! GO GATORS! Chad loses on the spread... which is rough because he was right, the spread was too much. The last field goal did him in, or it would have been a wash.

All in all

Chad
Week 3: 4-6 vs. Spread ... 8-2 Outright ...

LPL - tear down the goal posts!

OVERALL: 14-16 vs. Spread ... 24-6 Outright ... 1-2 LPLs

Shane
Week 2: 5-5 vs. Spread ... 7-3 Outright ...

LPL takes it in the Drew Stanton

OVERALL: 12-18 vs. Spread ... 20-10 Outright ... 1-2 LPLs

Spread lead is down to two as Shane won two that Chad didn't (Florida and Clemson), Chad won one that Shane didn't (Boston College). All-in-all, neither of us have anything to write home about... yet! But stay tuned in week 3 to see us turn it around!

Can Chris Leak play the Tennessee defense like a video game? We'll find out Saturday evening at the Swamp.

COLLEGE FOOTBALL: WEEK 3 PREDICTIONS

Oregon State @ #11 Louisville

Saturday, 9/17/05, Noon ESPN
Line: Louisville -14.0

Shane's Prediction: Louisville 32, Oregon State 17
Chad's Prediction: Louisville 34, Oregon State 14

Bet: Shane - Louisville didn't look that great a couple weeks ago against Kentucky. If this one was on the West Coast, I'd seriously consider picking OSU straight up. Louisville won't decimate, but they should dominate.
Chad - Chad is under the weather this week, and was unable to make pull discussions. Look for him to come back with avengence!

#25 Virginia @ Syracuse
Saturday, 9/17/05, Noon ESPN 2

Line: Virginia -7.5
Shane's Prediction: Virginia 38, Syracuse 17
Chad's Prediction: Virginia 20, Syracuse 10

Bet: Shane - I want to pick Syracuse as I've always thought they were an underrated program. Not this time. They stuck with West Virginia to open the season, and their defense has looked quite good so far (22 points allowed in 2 games). But this week they have to stop Marques Hagans. The schedule doesn't get any easier for Syracuse either, as their next game is Florida State. Oh, did I forget to mention they put Notre Dame on their schedule in November. When those two games, as well as Louisville and Uconn remain on the road, it don't look good for them!

Michigan State @ #10 Notre Dame

Saturday, 9/17/05, 3:30pm ABC Regional
Line: ND -6.5
Shane's Prediction: Notre Dame 41, Michigan State 17 Shane's LOW
Chad's Prediction: Notre Dame 24, Michigan State 14

Bet: Shane - This game is traditionally a barnburner. Wait, all games involving Notre Dame are barnburners. But Notre Dame proves you can go home again as they return mighty triumphantly with a solid win.

#13 Miami @ #20 Clemson

Saturday, 9/17/05, 3:30pm ABC Regional
Line: The U -7.0
Shane's Prediction: Miami 24, Clemson 21
Chad's Prediction: Miami 27, Clemson 14

Bet: Shane - Heartbreak in South Carolina. Miami kicks a last minute field goal to win. Miami looked really solid in every facet of the game except kicking in Tallahassee. Now it's time that their kicking pulls them through. It's not that Clemson is bad, it's that Miami is better.
Chad -

#21 Oklahoma @ UCLA

Saturday, 9/17/05, 3:30pm ABC Regional
Line: UCLA -6.5
Shane's Prediction: UCLA 38, Oklahoma 35
Chad's Prediction: UCLA 38, Oklahoma 34

Bet: Shane - This one caused me a lot of consideration. I just don't see where this game is going to go. If UCLA comes out scoring, how can Oklahoma stick with them without a passing game and with the Bruins putting about 100,000 men in the box? Still, I think OU will somehow stay in this one. I hope they can pull it out.
Chad -

Alabama @ South Carolina

Saturday, 9/17/05, 3:30pm CBS
Line: UA -2
Shane's Prediction: South Carolina 28, Alabama 27
Chad's Prediction: South Carolina 24, Alabama 21

Bet: Shane - Wow, I can't believe I just picked the Gamecocks. But they had a rough go of it so far with UCF scaring them and Georgia grinding out a victory over them. I think you've gotta look for a rebound, and Alabama may be caught looking at pundit predictions for success a little too carefully.
Chad -

#23 Fresno State @ Oregon

Saturday, 9/17/05, 7:00pm TBS
Line: OU -2.5

Shane's Prediction: Oregon 47, Fresno State 31
Chad's Prediction: Oregon 41, Fresno State 31

Bet: Shane - This one should be a shootout. Oregon scored 38 and 47 in their first two games while Fresno scored 55. While the defenses they played against weren't such great programs, their own defenses still gave up quite a few points, showing both teams defenses are only so-so. I just don't see Fresno coming out of Eugene with a win, though. Maybe if they score early.
Chad -

#8 Florida State @ #17 Boston College

Saturday, 9/17/05, 7:45pm ESPN
Line: FSU -1

Shane's Prediction: Boston College 26, Florida State 14
Chad's Prediction: Florida State 16, Boston College 10 Chad's LOW

Bet: Shane - It's time to see if BC is for real baby! FSU is matched only by Oklahoma in their mediocre offensive play so far this season. Most people didn't pick BC to beat BYU in week 1, either!
Chad -

Arkansas @ #1 USC
Saturday, 9/17/05, 10:15pm FSN

Line: USC -31.5

Shane's Prediction: USC 58, Arkansas 17
Chad's Prediction: USC 49, Arkansas 10

Bet: Shane - USC covers. For a team struggling to hold on to its position in the middle of the SEC pack, travelling to Los Angeles will be a lonely road for the Razorbacks.
Chad -

THE GAME OF THE WEEK

#5 Tennessee @ #6 Florida
Saturday, 9/17/05, 8:00pm CBS National

Line: UF -6.0

Shane's Prediction: Florida 31, Tennessee 21
Chad's Prediction: Florida 24, Tennessee 21

Bet: Shane - THIS IS WHEN COLLEGE FOOTBALL SEASON STARTS. In my mind, this game epitomizes the start of fall, and with it the start of the college season. Really not sure how good either team is. I don't think UT is as bad as they played versus UAB. I think the Vegas people are giving them a bit of a jip in such a large margin. Remember, the critics had UT in the National Championship picture a lot more than they did UF before this season started. Still, I'm looking for an exciting game from Chris Leak that will bring back memories of the 96 Championship team, with a sprinkle of Donovan McNabb. Boy, with a game like this on tap, it's great to be alive!

Matchup	Shane Young	Chad Ringley
----------------------------------------	----------------------	---------------------
OSU @ #11 LOUIS (-14)	LOUISVILLE	LOUISVILLE
#25 UVA (-7.5) @ SYRACUSE	VIRGINIA	VIRGINIA
MSU @ ND (-6.5)	ND	ND
UMFL(-7) @ CLEM	CLEMSON	MIAMI
#21 OU @ UCLA (-6.5)	OKLAHOMA	OKLAHOMA
BAMA (-2) @ SCAR	S CAROLINA	S CAROLINA
#23 FRESST @ ORU (-2.5)	OREGON	OREGON
#8 FSU (-1) @ #17 BC	BOSTON COLL	FLORIDA STATE
ARK @ #1 USC (-31.5)	USC	USC
#5 TENN @ #6 UF (-6)	FLORIDA	TENNESSEE

Shane's lock: Notre Dame -6.5 vs Michigan State
Chad's lock: Tennessee +6 @ Florida


Shane's Record Thus Far:
7-13 vs the spread
13-7 straight up
1-1 Locks of the Week

Chad's Record Thus Far:
10-10 vs the spread
15-5 straight up
0-2 Locks of the Week

Shane's 2005 NFL Predictions:


Made: 09-08-05 (before the opening game of week 1)
Preparation: Didn't look at schedules or too much else. Felt like looking at too much stuff would only waterdown my predictions. Did pay attention a bit in preseason, though.


TEAM>>>>>>>>>>>>>>PREDICTION
NFC

East
Philadelphia.........11-5
New York Giants....9-7
Dallas.................7-9
Washington..........5-11
=================================#

North
Detroit...............10-6
Minnesota............8-8
Green Bay............7-9
Chicago...............5-11
=================================#
South
Atlanta................9-7
Carolina...............6-10
New Orleans..........6-10
Tampa Bay............5-11
=================================#

West
Seattle..............11-5
Saint Louis.........10-6
Arizona..............8-8
San Francisco.......6-10
=================================#

***********************************

AFC

East
New York Jets........10-6
New England..........10-6
Miami..................8-8
Buffalo.................7-9
=================================#

North
Cincinnati...........10-6
Pittsburgh...........8-8
Baltimore............8-8
Cleveland............3-13
=================================#

South
Jacksonville.........10-6
Indianapolis.........9-7
Houston..............8-8
Tennessee...........5-11
=================================#

West
San Diego...........11-5
Denver...............9-7
Oakland..............9-7
Kansas City..........8-8
=================================#

*************************************



Predicted Playoffs:


Wildcard Round -
New York Giants @ Detroit Detroit
Saint Louis @ Atlanta Atlanta
New England @ Jacksonville Jacksonville
Indianapolis @ New York Jets New York Jets


Divisional Round -
Detroit @ Seattle Detroit
Atlanta @ Philadelphia Philadelphia
Jacksonville @ San Diego Jacksonville
New York Jets @ Cincinnati New York Jets


Championship Round -
Detroit @ Philadelphia Philadelphia
Jacksonville @ New York Jets New York Jets


Super Bowl -
Philadelphia vs New York Jets Philadelphia







3 Teams I thought are most likely to win the Super Bowl,
in order from best chance to least:
New England
Philadelphia
Atlanta
-------------------------------------------------------
-------------------------------------------------------

This year is a strange year in the NFL. There aren't many teams at all I feel can win the Super Bowl this year. Indianapolis is a common pick, but I've picked them the last two years, and I see this being a bit of an off year for them as people adjust to and focus on Peyton Manning and Edge perhaps struggles a bit (injury?). Even Atlanta I have some concerns putting in my top 3. But as I've thought about it, this could be the breakout year for Vick and the recieving corp. The Giants and Lions are my two underdawg picks of the year. I definitely think both will outdo people's estimates, as both teams are really loaded up, and I think both Harrington and Manning will break out this year. Arizona is also on my watch list, as they have quite a fun collection of players, but I just don't see them beating what are becoming high expectations as we approach the season. Dennis Green is one of my favorite guys, but I can't say he's ever been one to surprise people too much. New England and Philly are really the best teams by far this year. I'm not sure New England will roll quite as easily as last year, but I wouldn't be shocked if they snagged another Vince Lombardi. Philly has been in turmoil a lot this preseason, and this could really be their year. They are guaranteed to win the NFC East. I'm split, though, on how far they'll go in the playoffs. I don't see them losing in the NFC title game or Super Bowl again this year. They either lose early, or go all the way. Jacksonville is definitely up-and-coming, while Cincinnati I have doing well basically because that division sucks badly! I don't think anybody will put it together this year.

The Jets have been one of my worst teams to pick forever. Them and Oakland. That said, I decided to give both teams the benefit of the doubt. Will Curtis Martin really do that well this year? I really don't see them going as far as I have them with Blaylock at the helm, so I guess he'll have to! Still, the image of an overachieving year of return for Chad Pennington finds a comfortable place in my mind. I think Miami'll really surprise some people this year, as they aren't THAT bad. They really did so poorly last year because Ricky left. Not so much that they needed him THAT bad... but that it really became a giant distraction through the whole season... and an excuse as well. I think Frerotte could come in and really fit the role the team needs this year, an empassioning leader. He's not going to win games with mobility or even with the best passing, but I can't say I feel about him the way I do about former Baltimore quarterbacks... he will be an effective offensive producer in my mind.

I wanted to give New Orleans a boost because of their motivation... but I'd been having deliberations about them before Katrina already. That NFC South is going to be strange. A few weeks ago I really didn't Atlanta winning like they did last year... but who else is going to do it?!? Tampa could surprise a bit, but I really don't like what they've become in the last couple years, and I think as the defense really starts to deteorate this year, that even though I like Griese and Carnell to a lesser degree (and everyone loves Mike Clayton!), the team just can't beat defenses enough this year to make some noise. The floundering they came up with when the NFC Wild Card race turned into a joke last year really showed me a lot. This team, this coach (I don't really care for Jon Gruden) just don't have it. Carolina is NOT a top 5 team. Not even close. Yet that's where some people are putting them. Stephen Davis' return will be beneficial and interesting, but I'm not buying. Their defense won't live up to expectations, and their offense just doesn't inspire.

Minnesota should be interesting. I certainly think they will outdo expectations, and that the loss of Randy Moss will not hold them back one second (I really don't think Oakland can go 9-7... 6-10 is probably more like it... but I always underestimate them, so decided to give them some leeway, as I mentioned). The reported resurgence of Brett Favre definitely causes me to take a second look at Green Bay... and Ahman Green has got to beat expectations one of these years... but I'm just not sure it's this year. Wouldn't shock me, though. Chicago will be admirable to get to 5-11... though they might get to 6 or 7 wins. I see this as a pride year for them. Maybe next year they'll come together. But they are definitely a year out, probably 2 or 3, maybe more.

Detroit is my favorite team to pick this year. They really have so much in the way of the pieces, it's not even funny. Even their defense is underrated in my beliefs. Harrington, Jones, Rogers, the 2 Williams, Pollard. Wow. I just can't see this team failing to meet expectations, failing to win the NFC North. I can definitely envision them in Detroit in February. Not in the stands, either. If I had put a 4th team with a chance to win the Super Bowl, this would be them.

Still, I think they'll come a step short yet. Will they ever reach that pinnacle? I don't know. I hope so. The recievers put every other team's to shame. It's only a matter of time until Jones becomes elite. And Harrington will be a top quarterback, no doubt it my mind. But I've felt like they were ready for a few years. Now is the season I'm ready to buy in with an NFC Championship Game berth.

You can't ever count out Dallas, but I really have trouble seeing Parcells turning this team into champions. I think their predictable overachieving that first season will be his last great season. Pity, too, as I like quite a few of their players (Bledsoe, Julius Jones, Roy Williams). Peerless Price could be a big fantasy sleeper later this season, I don't think Glenn will be staying at #2 for long (what a malformed pair of egos they have running down the field there!). San Francisco could also outdo predictions this year... I think Smith, if/when he finally starts playing more, could be a stabilizing player for the organization, and Frank Gore really is going to be the man here soon. They could easily go deep into the playoffs next season! Arizona also is starting to look really good, as I mentioned, and I really see a flip-flop of the division in the next couple years as Saint Louis and Seattle really start to face down days. I'm not sure Seattle is really that good... but couldn't pick anyone else... and they do their best when they don't have high expectations (they should have beaten Green Bay a couple years ago in their surprising playoff season... but that led to high expectations last year, and an easy-to-predict first round exit (though another great game!)). Saint Louis probably has a couple of good years left with Bulger and the underrated Steven Jackson, but they aren't the team of years gone by.

As I said before, this year isn't as easy to pick, for me, as recent years. Last year there were easy calls with San Diego, Jacksonville, and Atlanta blossoming and Carolina, Miami, and Dallas going the other direction (I made my picks in week 2 last year, but they were basically the ones I thought up preseason) (you can see last year's picks, as well as all my old predictions at http://weather.ou.edu/~syoung/sportspredictions.htm though that address will probably disappear at some point in the future). The teams ready to come on to the scene were obvious (to me at least) and really stood out with awesome talent sets and in the position to just really break out. But this year, there aren't so many of those teams (though as I've said, Detroit, Cincy, Jacksonville, and the Giants are among my best bets to be the team that does). The reality is I don't see as many breakouts this year. I also don't see as many total flameouts, as I can't imagine there being a Miami or Tennessee this year that really just collapses under their own weight. The worst teams from last year, Miami, SF, Chicago, Cleveland, will all slowly start to get better (with the exception possibly of Cleveland (TRENT DILFER IS AN IMPROVEMENT!?!)), while most of the top teams from last year slide off the pace just a tad. Overall I think this is an in-between year for the NFL, as some new teams start to emerge and old ones disappear, but the change will only be gradual, and you won't see too many shockers this year. NE and Philly in the Super Bowl really is the best pick this year by far. I'm not one to stick with last seasons results into this year, but why not?

The AFC has started to slip back to the NFC (though as I said, Miami and Cincy should really help the bottom improve... if we could only pull Cleveland up). Baltimore is another team that could surprise, I suppose, this season, if their young talent emerges and their defense plays as good as they can. Pittsburgh I've never been a masterful predictor of, but I think near the wildcard is the best you can ask of them (I've said that before... Bill Cowher is amazing at making decent teams play nearly flawless). I don't see Big Ben being the hero of 2004, though. Watch out for him down the line, though! I'm not sure Cincy is 10-6 worthy, but they've had so many years as a wild card contender, one of these years they've just gotta win going away, and that year could be this year. Even as they got rid of (in my opinion) their best talent in Peter Warrick.

The Jets to win 10 this year has to be the pick that I'm most suprised I'm making. New England to win 10 I feel good about. Buffalo to only win 7 is a pick I struggled to make, because I like the team... but I really can't see LosSman being their savior. Their backups leave a lot to be desired, too (GO SHANE MATTHEWS!!!). Their recievers are overated, too, in my opinion. Miami may not go 8-8, but they'll turn it around from last year.

As I said, Indy is due to come back to earth this year. I think that's the popular pick to enter the Super Bowl this year, but I don't see it possible. I could be wrong. But I can't see them being better than last year. And they snuck out quite a few wins last year (the San Diego game comes to mind). The South is an interesting division, because two of the teams with the best upsides sit in that division: Jacksonville and Houston. I'd say both have a better shot at being division winner than Indy (I like Indy as a wild card this year). And both could get to around the championship game if they do. Byron Leftwich and David Carr (HOH!) really are two of the more ready-to-explode guys in this league. They've been around a while, getting experience, and one of them may well become the best quarterback in the NFL in 2005!!! (Or at least top 5... I don't know if they can pass established guys, particularly Peyton). I'd really like to say Tennessee and Cleveland could make a run this year, but Tennessee doesn't have the offense to play with the guns in the South, nor Cleveland the D to stick in the North (actually neither team really have the opposite side of the ball either, anymore). If Tennessee played in another division, I might make them a wild card contender. Maybe if Tennessee or Cleveland can have one running back emerge from their back mess, they could turn things around. But I don't see that happening. If anything, Tennessee might see Travis Henry take hold of the position and put them in a position to win next year (though then I'd have all 4 teams kicking butt in 2006... how does that happen!?!).

Finally the west. San Diego won't surprise people like last year. And they may not be able to dominate as much as they did (in my mind) last year. But I think they'll come through again. This is definitely one of the more wide open divisions, but I don't see the other three teams coming through. Actually, Kansas City could be the surprise team to the top this year. No team is going to win more than 11 games. I wouldn't be surprised if the winner is 10-6, or even 9-7. Not that they'll be bad, just that the four teams all are quite potent at times. No division game will be a pencilled in win this year for any of the 4 teams. Oakland is a lot of people's pick to win the west, but I think Moss will find out how much Culpepper meant to him, as Collins... BLECH. I don't see Larry Johnson emerging this year (you never know, but next year... that could be the payday for him), and Trent Green is 35 now. The defense has to improve this year to have a hope (and to keep from becoming a laughing stock the next few years), but I think that's an accomplishable task. The defense won't become a top D or any such thing, but I think around 20th in the league is enough to give them a chance, and something their fans can expect of them. Denver needs to find a back (I'm banking on Ron Dayne coming out eventually, and taking that spot for the long haul, but I know the odds of that are about the same as the Ravens averaging 50 points a game). Plummer was always a guy I felt was better than his situation in Arizona... but then I felt he was a step down from Griese. He's shown me he's better than that, but he's still got some developing to do if this team wants to turn into a Super Bowl team. Still they could do that by 2006 if things go right this season (haven't I said that about everyone!), but they could also find themselves freefalling by next year if they don't handle the changing of the guard a little better (they need to establish a running back and Lelie has big shoes to fill as Smith ages. The D also needs to rebuild a bit in the next couple years).

So that's my picks for 2005. I correctly called 9 of the 12 playoff teams last season (including 3 of the 4 bye teams correctly labelled as such), and 7 in 2003 (2 bye teams).

Looking forward to a fun season!

Shane's 2005 College Football Predictions

*** I had trouble formatting these for this blog, but finally got that worked out to enough degree to make it readable. Darn Blogger! Doesn't allow tables or preformatting well. Oh well, I'll do my best with what I've got!

Made: 09-02-05 (before the season started)
Preparation: Looked at out of conference schedules only, and only for the
teams I predicted records for. I used USA Today's predictions for a little
guidance on the small conferences, though varied quite a bit in places.

ACC

Atlantic
Boston College [7-1] 11-1
Florida State [6-2] 8-3
North Carolina State [4-4] 7-4
Clemson [4-4] 4-7
Wake Forest [4-4] 6-5
Maryland [2-6] 3-8

Coastal
Miami (FL) [7-1] 10-1
Virginia Tech [5-3] 8-3
Virginia [4-4] 6-5
Georgia Tech [3-5] 4-7
North Carolina [2-6] 3-8
Duke [0-8] 2-9

TITLE GAME: BOSTON COLLEGE def Miami

Big East

Louisville [7-0] 11-0
Pittsburgh [5-2] 7-4
West Virginia [5-2] 8-3
Connecticut [3-4] 5-6
Syracuse [3-4] 5-6
South Florida [3-4] 5-6
Cincinnati [2-5] 4-7
Rutgers [0-7] 2-9


Big 10

Michigan [7-1] 10-1
Ohio State [7-1] 10-1
Iowa [6-2] 9-2
Minnesota [6-2] 9-2
Purdue [5-3] 6-5
Penn State [4-4] 7-4
Illinois [3-5] 5-6
Wisconsin [3-5] 6-6
Michigan State [2-6] 4-7
Northwestern [1-7] 1-10
Indiana [0-8] 2-9


Big 12

North
Missouri [5-3] 8-3
Nebraska [5-3] 7-4
Kansas State [5-3] 8-3
Iowa State [4-4] 6-5
Colorado [3-5] 4-7
Kansas [2-6] 4-7

South
Texas A&M [6-2] 9-2
Texas [6-2] 8-3
Oklahoma [5-3] 8-3
Texas Tech [4-4] 7-4
Oklahoma State [1-7] 4-7
Baylor [1-7] 4-7

TITLE GAME: Texas A&M def Missouri

Pac 10

USC [7-1] 10-1
Arizona State [6-2] 9-2
UCLA [4-4] 6-5
Oregon [4-4] 6-5
Stanford [4-4] 6-5
California [4-4] 7-4
Washington [3-5] 5-6
Arizona [3-5] 6-5
Oregon State [3-5] 4-7
Washington State [2-6] 4-7


SEC

East
Florida [7-1] 10-1
Tennessee [7-1] 9-2
Georgia [6-2] 9-2
South Carolina [3-5] 6-5
Vanderbilt [2-6] 4-7
Kentucky [0-8] 3-8

West
LSU [7-1] 9-2
Alabama [6-2] 9-2
Auburn [4-4] 7-4
Arkansas [3-5] 5-6
Mississippi State [2-6] 4-7
Mississippi [1-7] 3-8

TITLE GAME: FLORIDA def LSU

Independents

Navy 9-2
Notre Dame 7-4
Army 3-8
Temple 0-11


MAC

East
Bowling Green 10-1
Ohio
Miami (OH)
Kent State
Akron
Buffalo

West
Toledo
Eastern Michigan
Central Michigan
Northern Illinois
Ball State
Western Michigan

TITLE GAME: Bowling Green def Toledo

CUSA

East
Memphis
Marshall
UAB
Southern Miss
UCF
East Carolina

West
Tulane
UTEP
Rice
SMU
Tulsa
Houston

TITLE GAME: MEMPHIS def Tulane

MWC

New Mexico
BYU
Colorado State
San Diego State
Utah
Wyoming
Air Force
TCU
UNLV


Sun Belt

North Texas
Middle Tennessee
La-Lafayette
Troy
La-Monroe
Arkansas State
Fl International
Fl Atlantic


WAC
Fresno State
Boise State
Hawaii
Louisiana Tech
Nevada
San Jose State
Idaho
New Mexico State
Utah State


-----------------------------------------------------------
Bowls:

New Orleans
UAB vs North Texas ---> North Texas
GMAC
Tulane vs Miami (OH) ---> Tulane
Las Vegas
Stanford vs Utah ---> Stanford
Poinsettia
Ohio vs San Diego State ---> San Diego State
Fort Worth
Iowa State vs Marshall ---> Marshall
Hawaii
UTEP vs Hawaii ---> Hawaii
Motor City
Eastern Michigan vs BYU ---> Eastern Michigan
Champ Sports
Virginia Tech vs Nebraska ---> Nebraska
Insight
Pittsburgh vs Oregon ---> Pittsburgh
MPC Computers
Colorado State vs Wake Forest ---> Wake Forest
Alamo
Missouri vs Purdue ---> Purdue
Emerald
California vs New Mexico ---> New Mexico
Holiday
Oklahoma vs Arizona State ---> Oklahoma
Music City
South Carolina vs Toledo ---> Toledo
Sun
Penn State vs UCLA ---> UCLA
Independence
Texas Tech vs Boise State ---> Boise State
Peach
Florida State vs Auburn ---> Florida State
Meineke Car Care
North Carolina State vs West Virginia ---> West Virginia
Liberty
Memphis vs Bowling Green ---> Memphis
Houston
Kansas State vs Fresno State ---> Fresno State
Outback
Minnesota vs Alabama ---> Alabama
Cotton
Texas vs Tennessee ---> Texas
Gator
Miami (FL) vs Notre Dame ---> Notre Dame
Capitol One
LSU vs Iowa ---> LSU

*****
Fiesta
Texas A&M vs Georgia -----> Georgia
Sugar
Florida vs Ohio State -----> Ohio State
Orange
Boston College vs Michigan -----> Michigan
Rose
#1 Louisville vs #2 USC -----> #1 Louisville




Just a reminder, these picks aren't supposed to represent single wins/losses, but teams overall performance. Although my specific records suggest Ohio State will beat Texas, Arizona State will beat LSU, and Florida will beat FSU, I'm not saying those things. These are general team records... how I feel about a team. Perhaps next year I'll only give divisional positions as I did for smaller conferences, and then bowl games.

May the best team win!

I'll play this game.

My predictions for Chad's 10 games of the week:

Miami (OH) @ #6 Ohio State
Saturday, 9/3/05, 12:00pm ABC Regional
Line: OSU -15.0
Predictions: Ohio State 54, Miami (OH) 10
Ohio State covers handily.

TCU @ #7 Oklahoma
Saturday, 9/3/05, 12:00pm ABC Regional
Line: OU -26.0
Prediction: Oklahoma 44, TCU 10
Bet: OU covers big. I LIKE CHAD'S CALL :-)

Ball State @ #11 Iowa
Saturday, 9/3/05, 12:00pm ESPN Gameplan
Line: Iowa -38.5
Prediction: Iowa 31 Ball State 21
Bet: Ball State beats the spread

UAB @ #3 Tennessee
Saturday, 9/3/05, 12:30pm ESPNGameplan
Line: UT -23.5
Prediction: Tennessee 45 UAB 14
UT covers handily.

#22 Boston College @ BYU
Saturday, 9/3/05, 3:30pm ABC Regional
Line: BC -2.5
Prediction: Boston College 42, BYU 28
Boston College covers, on the start to a big season (see my predictions coming up in a min)

#18 Boise State @ #13 Georiga
Saturday, 9/3/05, 5:30pm ESPN 2
Line: UGA -7.0
Prediction: UGA 41 Boise State 34
Bet: You took my prediction. Wash.

#1 USC @ Hawaii
Saturday 9/3/05 8pm, ESPN
Line: USC - 38.0
Prediction: Hawaii 42, USC 38. Gotta go with it!
Bet: No way USC covers even if my dream remains only a dream.

#8 Virginia Tech @ NC State
Sunday, 9/4/05, 7:45pm ESPN 2
Line: VT -3.5
Prediction: VT 42 NCSU 24
Bet: VT covers. If it's closer, it'll be a lot closer, but I think VT will lead the whole game, never in doubt.

#9 Miami @ #14 Florida State
Monday, 9/5/05, 8:00pm ABC
Line: The U -3.0
Prediction: FSU 35, Miami 21
Bet: My other long-time gut feeling was FSU would win this game by a couple tds. I'm not so confident on that as the season approaches, but I'll still go with it.

#17 Texas A&M @ Clemson
Saturday, 9/3/05, 8:00pm ABC Regional
Line: TAM -1.0
PREDICTION: Texas A&M 28, Clemson 26
COMMENTS: TAMU covers, but it'll be too darn close!


If I had to take one this week and bet it, it'd probably be USC failing to cover. That or Boston College covering/winning. I'm suprised the oddsmakers didn't give more respect to FSU or TAMU. FSU +3 at home!?! Even with it being Miami, that's tough to swallow when FSU is 14 to Miami's 9. A couple of others I'd most likely take would
West Virginia +1 1/2 @ Syracuse and
Tulane +10 @ S Miss (they are going to be playing with a lot of passion)
Other than that, there aren't too many I'd jump on this week. Maybe after a week, and we get a better feel for the season! A couple other games of interest to me this weekend: Notre Dame at Pitt (and I'd really look into taking ND) and Bowling Green @ Wisconsin

Game	SY	CR
M(OH)@OSU(-15)	OSU	OSU
OU@TCU(-26)	OU	OU
BST@IOWA(-38.5)	Ball	Iowa
UAB@Tenn(-23.5)	Tenn	UAB
BC(-2.5)@BYU	BC	BC
BoiseSt@UGA(-7)	Wash	Wash
USC(-38)@Hawaii	Hawaii	Hawaii
VT(-3.5)@NCSU	VT	VT
M(FL)(-3)@FSU	FSU	FSU
TexasA&M(-1)@Clemson	TAMU	TAMU

Shane's lock: Hawaii +38 vs. USC
Chad's lock: TAMU -1 @ Clemson