Shane's 2005 NFL Predictions:


Made: 09-08-05 (before the opening game of week 1)
Preparation: Didn't look at schedules or too much else. Felt like looking at too much stuff would only waterdown my predictions. Did pay attention a bit in preseason, though.


TEAM>>>>>>>>>>>>>>PREDICTION
NFC

East
Philadelphia.........11-5
New York Giants....9-7
Dallas.................7-9
Washington..........5-11
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North
Detroit...............10-6
Minnesota............8-8
Green Bay............7-9
Chicago...............5-11
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South
Atlanta................9-7
Carolina...............6-10
New Orleans..........6-10
Tampa Bay............5-11
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West
Seattle..............11-5
Saint Louis.........10-6
Arizona..............8-8
San Francisco.......6-10
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AFC

East
New York Jets........10-6
New England..........10-6
Miami..................8-8
Buffalo.................7-9
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North
Cincinnati...........10-6
Pittsburgh...........8-8
Baltimore............8-8
Cleveland............3-13
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South
Jacksonville.........10-6
Indianapolis.........9-7
Houston..............8-8
Tennessee...........5-11
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West
San Diego...........11-5
Denver...............9-7
Oakland..............9-7
Kansas City..........8-8
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Predicted Playoffs:


Wildcard Round -
New York Giants @ Detroit Detroit
Saint Louis @ Atlanta Atlanta
New England @ Jacksonville Jacksonville
Indianapolis @ New York Jets New York Jets


Divisional Round -
Detroit @ Seattle Detroit
Atlanta @ Philadelphia Philadelphia
Jacksonville @ San Diego Jacksonville
New York Jets @ Cincinnati New York Jets


Championship Round -
Detroit @ Philadelphia Philadelphia
Jacksonville @ New York Jets New York Jets


Super Bowl -
Philadelphia vs New York Jets Philadelphia







3 Teams I thought are most likely to win the Super Bowl,
in order from best chance to least:
New England
Philadelphia
Atlanta
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This year is a strange year in the NFL. There aren't many teams at all I feel can win the Super Bowl this year. Indianapolis is a common pick, but I've picked them the last two years, and I see this being a bit of an off year for them as people adjust to and focus on Peyton Manning and Edge perhaps struggles a bit (injury?). Even Atlanta I have some concerns putting in my top 3. But as I've thought about it, this could be the breakout year for Vick and the recieving corp. The Giants and Lions are my two underdawg picks of the year. I definitely think both will outdo people's estimates, as both teams are really loaded up, and I think both Harrington and Manning will break out this year. Arizona is also on my watch list, as they have quite a fun collection of players, but I just don't see them beating what are becoming high expectations as we approach the season. Dennis Green is one of my favorite guys, but I can't say he's ever been one to surprise people too much. New England and Philly are really the best teams by far this year. I'm not sure New England will roll quite as easily as last year, but I wouldn't be shocked if they snagged another Vince Lombardi. Philly has been in turmoil a lot this preseason, and this could really be their year. They are guaranteed to win the NFC East. I'm split, though, on how far they'll go in the playoffs. I don't see them losing in the NFC title game or Super Bowl again this year. They either lose early, or go all the way. Jacksonville is definitely up-and-coming, while Cincinnati I have doing well basically because that division sucks badly! I don't think anybody will put it together this year.

The Jets have been one of my worst teams to pick forever. Them and Oakland. That said, I decided to give both teams the benefit of the doubt. Will Curtis Martin really do that well this year? I really don't see them going as far as I have them with Blaylock at the helm, so I guess he'll have to! Still, the image of an overachieving year of return for Chad Pennington finds a comfortable place in my mind. I think Miami'll really surprise some people this year, as they aren't THAT bad. They really did so poorly last year because Ricky left. Not so much that they needed him THAT bad... but that it really became a giant distraction through the whole season... and an excuse as well. I think Frerotte could come in and really fit the role the team needs this year, an empassioning leader. He's not going to win games with mobility or even with the best passing, but I can't say I feel about him the way I do about former Baltimore quarterbacks... he will be an effective offensive producer in my mind.

I wanted to give New Orleans a boost because of their motivation... but I'd been having deliberations about them before Katrina already. That NFC South is going to be strange. A few weeks ago I really didn't Atlanta winning like they did last year... but who else is going to do it?!? Tampa could surprise a bit, but I really don't like what they've become in the last couple years, and I think as the defense really starts to deteorate this year, that even though I like Griese and Carnell to a lesser degree (and everyone loves Mike Clayton!), the team just can't beat defenses enough this year to make some noise. The floundering they came up with when the NFC Wild Card race turned into a joke last year really showed me a lot. This team, this coach (I don't really care for Jon Gruden) just don't have it. Carolina is NOT a top 5 team. Not even close. Yet that's where some people are putting them. Stephen Davis' return will be beneficial and interesting, but I'm not buying. Their defense won't live up to expectations, and their offense just doesn't inspire.

Minnesota should be interesting. I certainly think they will outdo expectations, and that the loss of Randy Moss will not hold them back one second (I really don't think Oakland can go 9-7... 6-10 is probably more like it... but I always underestimate them, so decided to give them some leeway, as I mentioned). The reported resurgence of Brett Favre definitely causes me to take a second look at Green Bay... and Ahman Green has got to beat expectations one of these years... but I'm just not sure it's this year. Wouldn't shock me, though. Chicago will be admirable to get to 5-11... though they might get to 6 or 7 wins. I see this as a pride year for them. Maybe next year they'll come together. But they are definitely a year out, probably 2 or 3, maybe more.

Detroit is my favorite team to pick this year. They really have so much in the way of the pieces, it's not even funny. Even their defense is underrated in my beliefs. Harrington, Jones, Rogers, the 2 Williams, Pollard. Wow. I just can't see this team failing to meet expectations, failing to win the NFC North. I can definitely envision them in Detroit in February. Not in the stands, either. If I had put a 4th team with a chance to win the Super Bowl, this would be them.

Still, I think they'll come a step short yet. Will they ever reach that pinnacle? I don't know. I hope so. The recievers put every other team's to shame. It's only a matter of time until Jones becomes elite. And Harrington will be a top quarterback, no doubt it my mind. But I've felt like they were ready for a few years. Now is the season I'm ready to buy in with an NFC Championship Game berth.

You can't ever count out Dallas, but I really have trouble seeing Parcells turning this team into champions. I think their predictable overachieving that first season will be his last great season. Pity, too, as I like quite a few of their players (Bledsoe, Julius Jones, Roy Williams). Peerless Price could be a big fantasy sleeper later this season, I don't think Glenn will be staying at #2 for long (what a malformed pair of egos they have running down the field there!). San Francisco could also outdo predictions this year... I think Smith, if/when he finally starts playing more, could be a stabilizing player for the organization, and Frank Gore really is going to be the man here soon. They could easily go deep into the playoffs next season! Arizona also is starting to look really good, as I mentioned, and I really see a flip-flop of the division in the next couple years as Saint Louis and Seattle really start to face down days. I'm not sure Seattle is really that good... but couldn't pick anyone else... and they do their best when they don't have high expectations (they should have beaten Green Bay a couple years ago in their surprising playoff season... but that led to high expectations last year, and an easy-to-predict first round exit (though another great game!)). Saint Louis probably has a couple of good years left with Bulger and the underrated Steven Jackson, but they aren't the team of years gone by.

As I said before, this year isn't as easy to pick, for me, as recent years. Last year there were easy calls with San Diego, Jacksonville, and Atlanta blossoming and Carolina, Miami, and Dallas going the other direction (I made my picks in week 2 last year, but they were basically the ones I thought up preseason) (you can see last year's picks, as well as all my old predictions at http://weather.ou.edu/~syoung/sportspredictions.htm though that address will probably disappear at some point in the future). The teams ready to come on to the scene were obvious (to me at least) and really stood out with awesome talent sets and in the position to just really break out. But this year, there aren't so many of those teams (though as I've said, Detroit, Cincy, Jacksonville, and the Giants are among my best bets to be the team that does). The reality is I don't see as many breakouts this year. I also don't see as many total flameouts, as I can't imagine there being a Miami or Tennessee this year that really just collapses under their own weight. The worst teams from last year, Miami, SF, Chicago, Cleveland, will all slowly start to get better (with the exception possibly of Cleveland (TRENT DILFER IS AN IMPROVEMENT!?!)), while most of the top teams from last year slide off the pace just a tad. Overall I think this is an in-between year for the NFL, as some new teams start to emerge and old ones disappear, but the change will only be gradual, and you won't see too many shockers this year. NE and Philly in the Super Bowl really is the best pick this year by far. I'm not one to stick with last seasons results into this year, but why not?

The AFC has started to slip back to the NFC (though as I said, Miami and Cincy should really help the bottom improve... if we could only pull Cleveland up). Baltimore is another team that could surprise, I suppose, this season, if their young talent emerges and their defense plays as good as they can. Pittsburgh I've never been a masterful predictor of, but I think near the wildcard is the best you can ask of them (I've said that before... Bill Cowher is amazing at making decent teams play nearly flawless). I don't see Big Ben being the hero of 2004, though. Watch out for him down the line, though! I'm not sure Cincy is 10-6 worthy, but they've had so many years as a wild card contender, one of these years they've just gotta win going away, and that year could be this year. Even as they got rid of (in my opinion) their best talent in Peter Warrick.

The Jets to win 10 this year has to be the pick that I'm most suprised I'm making. New England to win 10 I feel good about. Buffalo to only win 7 is a pick I struggled to make, because I like the team... but I really can't see LosSman being their savior. Their backups leave a lot to be desired, too (GO SHANE MATTHEWS!!!). Their recievers are overated, too, in my opinion. Miami may not go 8-8, but they'll turn it around from last year.

As I said, Indy is due to come back to earth this year. I think that's the popular pick to enter the Super Bowl this year, but I don't see it possible. I could be wrong. But I can't see them being better than last year. And they snuck out quite a few wins last year (the San Diego game comes to mind). The South is an interesting division, because two of the teams with the best upsides sit in that division: Jacksonville and Houston. I'd say both have a better shot at being division winner than Indy (I like Indy as a wild card this year). And both could get to around the championship game if they do. Byron Leftwich and David Carr (HOH!) really are two of the more ready-to-explode guys in this league. They've been around a while, getting experience, and one of them may well become the best quarterback in the NFL in 2005!!! (Or at least top 5... I don't know if they can pass established guys, particularly Peyton). I'd really like to say Tennessee and Cleveland could make a run this year, but Tennessee doesn't have the offense to play with the guns in the South, nor Cleveland the D to stick in the North (actually neither team really have the opposite side of the ball either, anymore). If Tennessee played in another division, I might make them a wild card contender. Maybe if Tennessee or Cleveland can have one running back emerge from their back mess, they could turn things around. But I don't see that happening. If anything, Tennessee might see Travis Henry take hold of the position and put them in a position to win next year (though then I'd have all 4 teams kicking butt in 2006... how does that happen!?!).

Finally the west. San Diego won't surprise people like last year. And they may not be able to dominate as much as they did (in my mind) last year. But I think they'll come through again. This is definitely one of the more wide open divisions, but I don't see the other three teams coming through. Actually, Kansas City could be the surprise team to the top this year. No team is going to win more than 11 games. I wouldn't be surprised if the winner is 10-6, or even 9-7. Not that they'll be bad, just that the four teams all are quite potent at times. No division game will be a pencilled in win this year for any of the 4 teams. Oakland is a lot of people's pick to win the west, but I think Moss will find out how much Culpepper meant to him, as Collins... BLECH. I don't see Larry Johnson emerging this year (you never know, but next year... that could be the payday for him), and Trent Green is 35 now. The defense has to improve this year to have a hope (and to keep from becoming a laughing stock the next few years), but I think that's an accomplishable task. The defense won't become a top D or any such thing, but I think around 20th in the league is enough to give them a chance, and something their fans can expect of them. Denver needs to find a back (I'm banking on Ron Dayne coming out eventually, and taking that spot for the long haul, but I know the odds of that are about the same as the Ravens averaging 50 points a game). Plummer was always a guy I felt was better than his situation in Arizona... but then I felt he was a step down from Griese. He's shown me he's better than that, but he's still got some developing to do if this team wants to turn into a Super Bowl team. Still they could do that by 2006 if things go right this season (haven't I said that about everyone!), but they could also find themselves freefalling by next year if they don't handle the changing of the guard a little better (they need to establish a running back and Lelie has big shoes to fill as Smith ages. The D also needs to rebuild a bit in the next couple years).

So that's my picks for 2005. I correctly called 9 of the 12 playoff teams last season (including 3 of the 4 bye teams correctly labelled as such), and 7 in 2003 (2 bye teams).

Looking forward to a fun season!