The shootout in the desert baby! Matt Leinart and SC go to Tempe to take on Derek Hagan and the red-hot Sun Devils of Arizona State.

COLLEGE FOOTBALL: WEEK 5 PREDICTIONS

#2 Texas @ Missouri

Saturday, 10/1/05, Noon ABC Regional
Line: Texas -14.5

Chad's Prediction: Texas 38, Missouri 21

Shane's Prediction: Texas 32, Missouri 14
Chad - Anyone who says the Longhorns are looking past Mizzou to the Red River Shootout doesn't have have their head screwed on straight. Brad Smith is a much less dangerous version of Vince Young, that the Texas defense sees in all it's glory everyday in practice. The Texas running game will be too much for Mizzou to contain, and the Longhorns will cruise in Tiger land.

Shane - First of all... it's October already!?! Man I hate winter. Well, if it weren't for college sports season. And Christmas. But come January and February, the world is just too cold. I've been back and forth on this one forever in my mind. Not over who would win. But how close it would be. It could be a surprise close one. But I don't believe Texas will face that until later this season. Especially after offensive struggles last game... they should be a chuggin' train this week. And the D steps up a bit.


#3 Virginia Tech @ West Virginia
Saturday, 10/1/05, Noon ESPN
Line: VA Tech -10.0
Chad's Prediction: VA Tech 24, WVU 3

Shane's Prediction: VA Tech 42 , WVU 27
Chad: Stat of the week: VA Tech has allowed a grand total of 2 offensive touchdowns this year: 1 on the opening drive to NC State, and one to Reggie Ball and GT in the 51-7 route. So...do you have faith in the WV offense in scoring against THIS defense? I didn't think so. No doubt Morgantown is a tough enviorment, and it's a rivarly game...but you got to recognize..it takes something special to score on the Hokies.
Shane: Another game I've had on my mind for a while as to how it would go. But recently I've seen too many people hyping West Virginia to win this one, and I'm less and less confident by the day that it could happen. It is in WV. But their season so far shows them to be a middle-of-the-pack team with close wins over Syracuse and Maryland. Everyone... and I mean everyone... is thinking WV this weekend. Heck, Yahoo's front story is about it. Not the big matchup of the week like it usually is... but WV-VT. VTech is starting, in my mind, to look like the team to win it all. I'm not saying they are. But their D is stout, and their O still is improving too. We'll see... there's some tough games still to come. But things don't often repeat themselves, and this upset will not.

Michigan @ #11 Michigan State

Saturday, 10/1/05, Noon ABC Regional

Line: MSU -4.0

Chad's Prediction: MSU 31, UM 24

Shane's Prediction: UM 35, MSU 28
Chad: Drew Stanton, Javon Ringer, and the MSU offense have proved their worth in 2005. The difference between the Spartans and the Wolverines? Leadership under center. Stanton is a terrific QB and is right now the hottest QB in the Big 10. Speaking of, what happened to the Chad Henne of 2004? With Hart banged up and Henne's shaky play, Michigan is on a deep downward spiral. The rivarly aspect of this game keeps it close, but expect MSU to keep rolling.

Shane: Is it just me, or has everybody and their brother decided to jump on the Michigan State bandwagon all of the sudden!?! Let's think back to preseason. What were the teams we were thinking were primed for the Big 10 race? Well not much has changed in a few weeks. They're all basically the same teams we considered preseason. We were talking about Ohio State, Michigan, and Iowa (well, they kinda fell off, but still). Then the second group? Purdue, Minnesota, Wisconsin... and maybe Penn State. Nowhere did we talk about the Spartans. Our mistake? NO! Michigan State hasn't done much of anything this season. They beat Notre Dame in South Bend. I think I've talked before about how anything at all is possible in that historic callamity zone. Was Boston College the better team in the 90's (or 3 years ago)? Was Notre Dame better last year when they played Michigan last year? Michigan State beat three other semi-patzies (Kent State, Hawaii, Illinois). But this team is a team that's got some talent on all sides of the ball... but doesn't have the consistancy in any part of it's game. Passing? Stanton has been explosive against the lesser teams. But his percentage was down in South Bend. And you can fault the coaching if you like... but they decided they couldn't rely on them to lead in the 4th quarter. After State went up 21 in the 3rd quarter... Stanton's remaining #s... 2 out of 5 for 28 yards... 1 of which was fumbled after being thrown in a touch spot... and a sack. He ran the ball well, but can he throw when called upon? Maybe. Slightly bigger question comes in the running game. The forgotten is that they only ran for 161 yards vs Notre Dame, 48 of which were Stanton. Those are passable numbers I guess... but the reality is they couldn't run out the clock in the 4th quarter. And that brings us to the defense, which gave up that 21 point lead. I know I sound like I'm focusing on that quarter a little too much, but the reality is it showed us something. MSU isn't that special. MSU's secondary can be exploited, and I believe their offense can be shut down when they play a decent defense. Michigan has only given up 269 yards per game so far this season, even while playing 2 ranked teams (ND and Wisconsin) AND a decent Northern Illinois team. And Chad Henne is ready to break out this game. This is almost the same team we saw play in the Rose Bowl last year. They need to get Michael Hart back. And they don't have Braylon Edwards, agreed. But come on, it wasn't all Edwards last year. Henne was a leader. And he can be one again. They are going to get a peptalk telling them they aren't out of the Big 10 race at all (it all still likely comes down to the annual UM-OSU game in reality), and they are going to come out and play some passionate ball. I'd make this my lock of the week if my disdain for MSU didn't effect me so much (stupid Mateen Cleaves).


#18 Minnesota @ Penn State
Saturday, 10/1/05, 3:30pm ABC Regional
Line: Minnesota -3.0
Chad's Prediction: Minnesota 24, Penn State 20

Shane's Prediction: Penn State 30, Minnesota 25
Chad: Have you seen Lawerence Maroney? Does he garner your Heisman vote? He should. The Golden Gophers are red hot and Penn State has been shaky at times this year...while Minnesota has played solid throughout. Expect alot of Maroney...too much for the Nittany Lion's defense...especially late in the 4th quarter.

Shane: This just in, Lawerence Maroney might just be human. Penn State has showed me some serious mettle so for this season. They beat South Florida quite easily (that looks better now, doesn't it)... and won their next two. Last week they needed a last minute td to escape Evanston. But what I get from that game is that they have that grit to win tough games. And in the Big 10, that's everything. Just a word of note, Northwestern is 2-2 after beating two decent MAC teams in Ohio and Northern Illinois... and they played 3 good quarters (whooops, probably should play the 2nd too) versus Arizona State on the road. Penn State can slow Maroney down just enough to stay slightly in front... and wins with the support of the home crowd. I can't guarantee this one... but this is Joe Pa's chance... and I really believe in the guy. Oh yeah, plus they got some big talent (Derrick Williams is da bomb people!). It's make or break time in State College!

#23 Iowa State @ Nebraska
Saturday, 10/1/05, 3:30pm ABC Regional
Line: NU -4.0
Chad's Prediction: Iowa State 17, NU 14

Shane's Prediction: Nebraska 24, ISU 23

Shane: This one almost slipped by our radar screen... but I think it's for the Big 12 North. These teams are way better than Colorado, Kansas, and Kansas State... and Missouri may be demoralized if they lose this week having already lost to a very excellent New Mexico team a few weeks back. People just really don't want to pick the Cyclones it seems... but they are good. The one problem? They are going to Lincoln. And don't look now, but I think the droning buzz is really starting ratchet up from fans with rising expectations in the state of corn. Don't look now, but Bret Meyer is 62 of 91 for 626 yards and 4 td. 4 picks as well, but still... If Iowa State can win this game, maybe, just maybe, we should slip his name into the Heisman watch envelope quietly. I mean, seriously, a sophomore led them to a big victory over highly touted Iowa... and last week led them through a tough game to pull out a victory. Iowa State isn't that special. I'm not all that impressed by their receivers. But if the Cyclones win this game... WATCH OUT. They'd have the best team in the north out of the way... and, oh, look, they play bulldogs Baylor and Oklahoma State from the south. They get Colorado at home. That would leave games at Missouri and at Texas A&M as their only real worries. Will they win them both? Eh, we'll see. But they definitely have the back road to an undefeated regular season. And wouldn't that be something. That said, I think Nebraska nips them in what could be... THE BEST BIG 12 GAME OF THE YEAR! There you go, I said it! :-)

#5 Florida @ #15 Alabama
Saturday, 10/1/05, 3:30pm CBS
Line: UF -4.0
Chad's Prediction: Florida 24, Alabama 21

Shane's Prediction: Florida 28, Alabama 23

Shane: I'm not all that hyped about this one yet. Yet. This weekend, I bet I'll be bouncing off the walls. I think people are starting to overhype the Bama. Why? Can I remind people they've only won by a combined 62 points (ie 15.5 ppg)... versus South Carolina, Arkansas, Southern Miss, and Middle Tennessee!?! That said, I've been on the Brodie bandwagon since way back when. With a big win, he definitely starts to hit the Heisman buzz. But I'm slowly becoming pumped about Florida. There's something I wanted to point out about conferences with consistantly huge depth and gobs of very heated rivalries. The conferences are the Big 10 and SEC. The problem? Playing a top college football program is like playing Russian Roulette. The more you play, the more likely you are to lose. Each time it's like escaping death, too. 7, 8, 9, even 10 teams in the Big 10 and SEC are good, basically every year. And the reality is that no team, no matter how good generally can escape these conferences to play for the national title. The Big 10 is already in tatters... and I guarantee no one will escape it without a loss at some point (Ohio State, you may've really done yourself in a few weeks ago). The SEC has already seen two (three if you count Auburn) of its top teams go down. And there are just so many teams lying in wait for the others. But these two teams are the best hopes of escaping. I'm specifically highlighting Florida because they really are starting to show me they have evolved to that next level. The win over Tennessee was not the prettiest, but it was sound. Now they have Bama, then LSU two weeks down the road, both on the road. Oh yeah... Georgia. Whoops... forgot Florida State... oh yeah, Vandy and SteveSpurriertown will want wins too. But Florida really gives that feeling that they've stepped to an elite class. Bama, on the other hand, gets their three toughest remaining opponents at home (UF, UT, LSU). So though they aren't Florida, they have a slightly better road. The truth is, though, that teams rarely come out of these conferences alive no matter how good they are. Look back at the recent survivors... LSU in 2003, OSU in 2002, UT in 97/98, UF in 96... and almost without fail, that conference's other best teams were on a down year. So, can UF survive the season? I'd like to say yes, but the reality is all signs point to know.

Kansas State @ Oklahoma

Saturday, 10/1/05, 7:00pm FSN Central

Line: OU -6.5

Chad's Prediction: Oklahoma 28, K-State 17, LPL

Shane's Prediction: Oklahoma 42, Kansas State 27

Shane: Yay, Oklahoma is favored to win a game again! It's started to feel lonely being a Sooner fan once more. And the scarier thought... could this be the last time this season the Sooners are favorites!?! Baylor be darned... if this team doesn't improve... it could get ugly. So the question comes to: have they improved? They definitely showed signs of life versus UCLA. Rhett Bomar emerged as a starting quarterback, for starters. For biggers, they at least showed that they can stick close to a pretty good team on the road. But they need to show they are for real this week back at home, where, after a week off, perhaps the unbeatable mentality can reemerge and the Sooners can get back on track. But, we're going to need to some significant steps forward. Options for this improvement include quarterback, wide receiver, blocking, secondary, play calling, and attitude. I may've said it two weeks ago, but this game is now the biggest game for OU this season. Bigger than the last couple season's National Championship games! They need this one bad... to show that they are back on track to some degree. If they win handily, perhaps we start talking about a team that CAN win 6 games and get to a bowl... and can maybe upset the Texas 3 (UT, TAMU, TTU). Weirdest thing, though, is seeing no numbers next to these two teams when they are playing. (First since Halloween 1991, from what I found on soonerstats.com).

#13 Notre Dame @ #22 Purdue

Saturday, 10/1/05, 7:45pm ESPN
Line: Purdue -3.0
Chad's Prediction: Notre Dame 38, Purdue 24

Shane's Prediction: Notre Dame 31, Purdue 28

Shane: This one is a coin toss that I have no clue on. Both teams are coming off losses and tough to predict anyways. I'm going to side with ND because they've consistantly looked a little more consistant than years past... but they looked good in 02 as well (wow, 2 mentions of 2002 Notre Dame in one week). Neither team should be overlooked at any point this season. I have to say, I feel the least confident in this one of any pick THIS SEASON. Should be another good one!

South Florida @ #9 Miami
Saturday, 10/1/05, 8:00pm ESPNU
Line: The U -21.0
Chad's Prediction: Miami 34, USF 10

Shane's Prediction: Miami 72, South Florida 7 LPL

Shane: I'm surprised that this one isn't closer spreadwise. But I will not let that stop me from picking this one as my lock of the week. Miami got their heart ripped out by some heartbreaking special teams..... and really hasn't had the chance to take out their aggression since playing two good teams in Clemson and Colorado. Now, it's payback time. Our contestant hails from the mighty land of Tampa Bay! They have 43250 students and specialize in medical research and water treatment. Let's meet, the University of South Florida. *Game Show entrance music plays*. Now that I have that out of my way... let's remember the fact that they played at home and a Louisville team that I think all-in-all may prove to be slightly less stellar than we thought. They also had the element of surprise and something big to prove. This week, they travel on the road to a historic college football school with a lot of pride and passion. Miami takes out their frustrations. Big. Real big.

GAME OF THE WEEK
@

#1 USC @ #14 Arizona State

3:30pm ABC Regional

Line: SC -17.0

Chad's Prediction: USC 41, Arizona State 21
Shane's Prediction: Arizona State 42, USC 35

Shane: This is it! I really have come to believe that Arizona State is going to win this one and strike a blow for the world of college football alike. The reality is, if Arizona State doesn't win this week, no one beats USC the rest of this season. Cal is overrated and doesn't have a chance in Duke of beating them. I want to pick Notre Dame... and anything can happen in South Bend (see Michigan-Michigan State game for more on this), but I don't know if they can pull it off when so overmatched. Arizona and Fresno State I'd love to see pull the upset... but face it, that isn't likely. That leaves UCLA as the only other good shot. And the game is on the east side of town. And I don't believe anyone will beat them in January either. This is it. And Arizona State has the team and the cards falling into place to win it. The Sun Devils played a great game against LSU and came up just short. They've beaten up their other three opponents. Sam Keller and Derek Hagan are rocking. And they have the matchup I think to do it. They can stick with USC. This game is going to be a slugfest. The over/under is a whopping 72 points (versus 37.5 for Nebraska-Iowa State)... and I bet the over is the correct choice! But USC won't be able to run them out of the building. And the State defense is excellent at putting pressure on the quarterback. The reality is USC may be slightly better. But Arizona State will keep it close. Then they'll get the big play/defensive stand in the 4th quarter or overtime with the help of the home crowd. This game will be everything the LSU game should've been. And USC and the quarterback who thought being down 21-0 to Oregon was "fun" will face a dark day when they realize all they worked for is over before they know it. This one will be remembered just like the Cal game in '03. Mark my words (considered making it my lock of the week if not for the South Florida shellacking on the slate). USC loses. And the peasants rejoice!